Current and future distribution of Eucalyptus globulus under changing climate in Ethiopia: implications for forest management

Eucalyptus globulus is a species endemic to southeastern Australia. It has naturalized non-native ranges in other parts of Australia, Europe, Africa, and the western United States. This study is the first of its kind in Ethiopia to model and map the spatiotemporal distribution of the species using species distribution models (SDMs). A total of 874 occurrence records were used from the online Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database and field observation. Three environmental variables, including terrain, climate, and soil were used to predict the species’ distribution. The terrain, climate, and soil raster grids were resampled to a 200-meter resolution. The Global Circulation Model (GCM) HadGEM3-GC3.1 was used to extract future climate data. This GCM has a good match between the atmospheric and oceanic components showing little drift in its surface climate. Besides, it has the best coverage of Africa. Three climate change scenarios (SSPs 1-2.6, SSPs 2-4.5, and SSPs 5-8.5) were used for predicting suitable habitat of the species. The jackknife test was chosen to assess the importance of each environmental predictor variable. The model’s performance was evaluated using the Area under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve. The model had excellent predictive performance with an average AUC of 0.94. Altitude, rooting conditions, slope, dry-month precipitation, and temperature seasonality are the most important environmental factors in shaping E. globulus distribution. Ethiopian highlands are predicted to be more suitable to the species, but the increase in temperature seasonality may reduce suitable habitat under the high-forcing climate change scenario. Climate change is expected to create more suitable habitats for eucalyptus in the future which may encourage plantations in potential distribution areas. Consequently, ensuring long-term forest health necessitates robust management systems prioritizing native trees and responsible grower or farmer practices.