Causal Effects of COVID-19 on the Risk of Thrombosis: A Two-Sample Mendel Randomization Study.

Background:  Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and thrombosis are linked, but the biomolecular mechanism is unclear. We aimed to investigate the causal relationship between COVID-19 and thrombotic biomarkers.

Methods:  We used two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess the effect of COVID-19 on 20 thrombotic biomarkers. We estimated causality using inverse variance weighting with multiplicative random effect, and performed sensitivity analysis using weighted median, MR-Egger regression and MR Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO) methods. All the results were examined by false discovery rate (FDR) with the Benjamin and Hochberg method for this correction to minimize false positives. We used R language for the analysis.

Results:  All COVID-19 classes showed lower levels of tissue factor pathway inhibitor (TFPI) and interleukin-1 receptor type 1 (IL-1R1). COVID-19 significantly reduced TFPI (odds ratio [OR] = 0.639, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.435-0.938) and IL-1R1 (OR = 0.603, 95% CI = 0.417-0.872), nearly doubling the odds. We also found that COVID-19 lowered multiple coagulation factor deficiency protein 2 and increased C-C motif chemokine 3. Hospitalized COVID-19 cases had less plasminogen activator, tissue type (tPA) and P-selectin glycoprotein ligand 1 (PSGL-1), while severe cases had higher mean platelet volume (MPV) and lower platelet count. These changes in TFPI, tPA, IL-1R1, MPV, and platelet count suggested a higher risk of thrombosis. Decreased PSGL-1 indicated a lower risk of thrombosis.

Conclusion:  TFPI, IL-1R, and seven other indicators provide causal clues of the pathogenesis of COVID-19 and thrombosis. This study demonstrated that COVID-19 causally influences thrombosis at the biomolecular level.