尼日利亚的外国直接投资与经济增长:重新审视

Ariayefa Francis Eniekezimene, Ebimowei Wodu, Joseph Peres Anda-Owei
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摘要

本研究探讨了 1981 年至 2022 年外国直接投资(FDI)对尼日利亚经济增长的影响。实际国内生产总值增长率(RGDPGR)是经济增长的替代变量,而外国直接投资(FDI)、固定资本形成总额(GFCF)、人均收入(PCI)和汇率(EXR)则是解释变量。研究采用了自回归分布滞后(ARDL)技术来估计模型,折衷主义范式和内生增长理论则是研究的理论框架。研究结果表明,从长期来看,外国直接投资、人均收入和汇率对尼日利亚的经济增长呈正向影响,但在统计上并不显著,而固定资本形成总额则不显著。然而,从短期来看,固定资本形成总额在滞后第二年对经济增长有显著的负面影响,表明固定资本形成总额每增加一个单位,国内生产总值就会减少约 10.21%,而人均收入则对尼日利亚经济增长产生积极影响。因此,研究建议,作为外国直接投资流入的市场规模信号,特别是作为人力资本发展的信号,政府应增加对人力资本发展的投资,重点是制造业和服务业的相关技术技能,以促进人均收入的增长,从而吸引外国直接投资,促进尼日利亚的经济增长。
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Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth in Nigeria: A Revisit
This study examined the impact of foreign direct investment (FDI) on economic growth in Nigeria from 1981 to 2022. Real gross domestic product growth rate (RGDPGR) was the proxy for economic growth while foreign direct investment (FDI), gross fixed capital formation (GFCF), per capita income (PCI) and exchange rate (EXR) were the explanatory variables. The study employed the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique to estimate the model, while the eclectic paradigm and endogenous growth theory served as the theoretical framework for the study. The results revealed that in the long run, foreign direct investment, per capita income and exchange rate were positive but statistically insignificant to economic growth in Nigeria, while gross fixed capital formation was insignificant. However, in the short, GFCF had significant negative impact on economic growth in the second lagged year showing that a unit increase in GFCF decreased RGDPGR by approximately 10.21% while per capita income impacted positively on the growth of the Nigerian economy. Consequently, the study recommended that as a signal of market size for the inflow of FDI and particularly as a signal of human capital development, the government should increase her investment in human capital development focusing on technical skills relevant in manufacturing and service sectors to engender growth in per capita income to attract FDI and economic growth in Nigeria.
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