多源数据集在描述 2001 至 2019 年中国极端降水时空特征中的应用评估

Jiayi Lu, Kaicun Wang, Guocan Wu, Yuna Mao
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摘要

极端降水强度的时空特征对于水文气候研究至关重要。本研究利用由 2400 多个站点组成的观测网络构建的网格化日降水量数据集 CN05.1,描述了 2001 年至 2019 年中国极端降水强度的时空分布特征。此外,我们还评估了 12 种广泛使用的降水数据集(包括基于测站、卫星检索、再分析和融合产品)在监测极端降水事件方面的可靠性。我们的研究结果表明1)CN05.1揭示了一个一致的空间分布特征,即极端降水强度从中国东南沿海地区向西北内陆地区下降。从 2001 年到 2019 年,中国北部和西南部地区的降水强度呈较明显的下降趋势,而东北部和长江平原地区则呈明显的上升趋势。全国极端降水指数均值在全国范围内呈现显著上升趋势。2) 基于观测站观测的数据集在时空分布方面表现出更高的适用性。3) 多源加权降水融合产品可有效捕捉极端降水指数的时间变化。5) 再分析数据集倾向于高估极端降水指数,对趋势的捕捉不足。ERA5和JRA55低估了趋势,而CFSR和MERRA2则明显高估了趋势。这些发现为中国极端降水和水文模拟研究选择可靠的降水数据集提供了依据。
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Evaluation of Multi-Source Datasets in Characterizing Spatio-Temporal Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation from 2001 to 2019 in China
The spatio-temporal characteristics of extreme precipitation intensity is crucial for hydroclimatic studies. This study delineates the spatio-temporal distribution features of extreme precipitation intensity across China from 2001 to 2019 using the gridded daily precipitation dataset CN05.1, constructed from an observation network of over 2400 stations. Furthermore, we evaluate the reliability of 12 widely used precipitation datasets (including gauge-based, satellite retrieval, reanalysis, and fusion products) in monitoring extreme precipitation events. Our findings indicate the following: 1) CN05.1 reveals a consistent spatial distribution characterized by a decline in extreme precipitation intensity from the southeastern coastal regions towards the northwestern inland areas of China. From 2001 to 2019, more pronounced declining intensity trends are discernible in the northern and southwestern regions of China, whereas marked increasing trends manifest in the northeastern and the Yangtze River plain regions. National mean extreme precipitation indices consistently exhibit significant increasing trends throughout China. 2) Datasets based on station observations generally exhibit superior applicability concerning spatiotemporal distribution. 3) Multi-source weighted precipitation fusion products effectively capture the temporal variability of extreme precipitation indices.4) Satellite retrieval datasets exhibit notable performance disparities in representing various intensity indices. Most products tend to overestimate the increasing trends of national mean intensity indices.5) Reanalysis datasets tend to overestimate extreme precipitation indices, and inadequately capture the trends. ERA5 and JRA55 underestimate trends, while CFSR and MERRA2 significantly overestimate the trends. These findings serve as a basis for selecting reliable precipitation datasets for extreme precipitation and hydrological simulation research in China.
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