高风险和经济增长乏力:俄罗斯中期宏观经济预测

IF 0.7 Q3 ECONOMICS Voprosy Ekonomiki Pub Date : 2024-02-06 DOI:10.32609/0042-8736-2024-2-5-22
A. L. Vedev, V. A. Eremkin, K. A. Tuzov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文探讨了 2026 年之前俄罗斯经济的中期前景。作者指出了决定未来动态的四个关键因素:制裁、外贸状况、俄罗斯与外国企业之间的关系、政府和俄罗斯银行的政策。我们预测的基本方案是基于外贸发展、投资活动、工业动态、本国货币汇率变化、通货膨胀情况和货币政策等未来最可能的趋势。保守方案考虑到了一些负面风险的表现,作者认为这些风险的概率相当高。对于这两种方案,作者都列出了可能对预测值产生重大影响的风险清单。经济动态建模结果表明,在中期内,俄罗斯将面临温和的恢复性增长,并且没有真正的机会加快增长速度。到 2026 年底,俄罗斯经济将比 2021 年增长 5.6-7.8%。本研究成果可用于与俄罗斯银行和俄罗斯联邦经济发展部的官方预测进行重要比较,以提高未来预算规划的效率。
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High risks and weak pace of economic growth: Russia macroeconomic forecast for the medium term
This paper examines prospects for the Russian economy in the mid-term until 2026. The authors identify four key factors that determine future dynamics: sanctions, the state of foreign trade, relations between Russian and foreign businesses, policy of the government and the Bank of Russia. The basic scenario of our forecast is based on the most probable future trends in development of foreign trade, investment activity, industrial dynamics, changes in exchange rate of the national currency, inflationary picture and monetary policy. The conservative scenario takes into account the manifestation of some negative risks, probability of which the authors consider as quite high. For both scenarios, the authors offer a list of risks that can have a significant impact on the forecast values. Results of modeling economic dynamics indicate that in the medium-term Russia will face moderate recovery growth, and there will be no real opportunities to accelerate it. By the end of 2026, the Russian economy will increase in the range of 5.6—7.8% compared to the level of 2021. The results of the presented work can be used for a critical comparison with official forecasts of the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Economic Development of the Russian Federation in order to improve the efficiency of budget planning for future periods.
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来源期刊
Voprosy Ekonomiki
Voprosy Ekonomiki ECONOMICS-
CiteScore
1.80
自引率
25.00%
发文量
86
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