Quantitative Prediction of the Development and Opening Sequence of Fractures in an Ultradeep Carbonate Reservoir: A Case Study of the Middle Ordovician in the Shunnan Area, Tarim Basin, China

Quantitative prediction of reservoir tectonic fracture development characteristics, opening pressures, and opening sequences is critical in the exploration and development of oil- and gas-bearing reservoirs and thus has received widespread attention. Using numerical simulations of the paleostress field during the formation of tectonic fractures and the rock fracture criterion, we predict the development and occurrence of fractures in the Middle Ordovician Yijianfang Formation in the Shunnan region of the Tarim Basin, China. The local paleostress fields reflected by the mechanical properties and occurrence of tectonic fractures obtained from core descriptions, acoustic emission (AE) experiments, paleomagnetic experiments, sound velocity measurements, and borehole breakouts were used to determine the regional paleostress and in-situ stress. We established a geomechanical model by combining the mechanical parameters of the rocks with the finite element method (FEM), optimizing the boundary conditions with a self-adaptive constraint algorithm, and conducting numerical simulations of the in-situ stresses. Fracture occurrence and numerical simulation results of the in-situ stress field were used to determine the opening pressure (Pk) and opening sequence of the fractures. The level of fracture development decreases away from the strike-slip fault in the study area. Fracture development is positively correlated with the Young’s modulus, paleostress difference, and paleostress difference coefficient of the rock. The direction of the maximum horizontal principal stress is from north-northeast (NNE) to northeast (NE). Initially, shear fractures and tensional fractures oriented NNE 30°–35° and NE 40°–45°, respectively, open during the water injection process. Pk is positively correlated with the horizontal stress difference coefficient and the angle between the fracture strike and the maximum horizontal principal stress. At the structural highs (burial depths shallower than 6450 m) and the structural lows (burial depths deeper than 6450 m), the burial depth correlates negatively and positively with Pk, respectively. This investigation of the development, occurrence, Pk, and opening sequence of tectonic fractures and their principal controlling factors will have a positive impact on the future exploration and production opportunities of similar fractured reservoirs.