{"title":"调查七种自然灾害对入境旅游业的非线性影响:来自 EM-DAT 数据库的启示","authors":"Léopold T Biardeau, M. Sahli","doi":"10.1177/13548166241229319","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"The growing frequency and intensity of disasters due to climate change present considerable risks for tourist destinations, necessitating comprehensive research on their economic impacts. This study investigates the contemporaneous dose-response relationship between natural disasters and inbound tourism by estimating a flexible binned regression model. The analysis is conducted in a panel data setting from 1995 to 2019, spanning over 150 countries and accounting for the impact of more than 8,300 individual disasters from seven distinct categories. Examining seven natural disaster types (earthquakes, epidemics, extreme temperature events, floods, landslides, storms and wildfires) and five disaster impact metrics reflecting their human and economic impacts, the analysis reveals that increased disaster impact, except for earthquakes, correlates with reduced levels of tourist arrivals and travel expenditure. The paper provides valuable insights into the relationship between disasters, climate change, and tourism economics, informing disaster mitigation strategies and broader climate change assessments for tourism sector policy and decision-makers.","PeriodicalId":23204,"journal":{"name":"Tourism Economics","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.6000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Investigating the non-linear impacts of seven types of natural disasters on inbound tourism: Insights from the EM-DAT database\",\"authors\":\"Léopold T Biardeau, M. Sahli\",\"doi\":\"10.1177/13548166241229319\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"The growing frequency and intensity of disasters due to climate change present considerable risks for tourist destinations, necessitating comprehensive research on their economic impacts. This study investigates the contemporaneous dose-response relationship between natural disasters and inbound tourism by estimating a flexible binned regression model. The analysis is conducted in a panel data setting from 1995 to 2019, spanning over 150 countries and accounting for the impact of more than 8,300 individual disasters from seven distinct categories. Examining seven natural disaster types (earthquakes, epidemics, extreme temperature events, floods, landslides, storms and wildfires) and five disaster impact metrics reflecting their human and economic impacts, the analysis reveals that increased disaster impact, except for earthquakes, correlates with reduced levels of tourist arrivals and travel expenditure. The paper provides valuable insights into the relationship between disasters, climate change, and tourism economics, informing disaster mitigation strategies and broader climate change assessments for tourism sector policy and decision-makers.\",\"PeriodicalId\":23204,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Tourism Economics\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.6000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-13\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Tourism Economics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241229319\",\"RegionNum\":3,\"RegionCategory\":\"管理学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Tourism Economics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166241229319","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"管理学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Investigating the non-linear impacts of seven types of natural disasters on inbound tourism: Insights from the EM-DAT database
The growing frequency and intensity of disasters due to climate change present considerable risks for tourist destinations, necessitating comprehensive research on their economic impacts. This study investigates the contemporaneous dose-response relationship between natural disasters and inbound tourism by estimating a flexible binned regression model. The analysis is conducted in a panel data setting from 1995 to 2019, spanning over 150 countries and accounting for the impact of more than 8,300 individual disasters from seven distinct categories. Examining seven natural disaster types (earthquakes, epidemics, extreme temperature events, floods, landslides, storms and wildfires) and five disaster impact metrics reflecting their human and economic impacts, the analysis reveals that increased disaster impact, except for earthquakes, correlates with reduced levels of tourist arrivals and travel expenditure. The paper provides valuable insights into the relationship between disasters, climate change, and tourism economics, informing disaster mitigation strategies and broader climate change assessments for tourism sector policy and decision-makers.
期刊介绍:
Tourism Economics, published quarterly, covers the business aspects of tourism in the wider context. It takes account of constraints on development, such as social and community interests and the sustainable use of tourism and recreation resources, and inputs into the production process. The definition of tourism used includes tourist trips taken for all purposes, embracing both stay and day visitors. Articles address the components of the tourism product (accommodation; restaurants; merchandizing; attractions; transport; entertainment; tourist activities); and the economic organization of tourism at micro and macro levels (market structure; role of public/private sectors; community interests; strategic planning; marketing; finance; economic development).