自然资源是否会招致恐怖主义:来自资源丰富地区的证据

Muhammad Tahir, Muhammad Mumtaz Khan
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摘要

目的中东和北非地区自然资源非常丰富。与此同时,中东和北非地区在过去几年中也是恐怖主义的受害者。本研究试图调查中东和北非地区的自然资源与恐怖主义之间是否存在任何关系。设计/方法/途径我们重点研究了 2002-2019 年期间中东和北非地区 15 个资源丰富的国家。在研究这两个变量之间的关系时,我们采用了适当的计量经济学技术,并对恐怖主义的其他主要决定因素进行了控制。研究结果结果为自然资源鼓励恐怖主义的假设提供了确凿证据。我们发现自然资源对恐怖主义产生了积极影响。除自然资源外,人均 GDP、贸易开放度、政治稳定性、国内投资和政府支出等其他因素也对恐怖主义产生了负面影响。此外,研究结果表明,外国直接投资和腐败与解释恐怖主义无关,而关于就业水平和恐怖主义的研究结果则出乎意料。这些结果对中东和北非地区具有重要的政策影响。建议中东和北非地区针对其巨大的自然资源制定适当的政策,以有效解决恐怖主义问题。同样,对贸易自由化、政治稳定、政府开支、投资、居民收入增加以及以降低通货膨胀率为形式的宏观经济稳定给予有利的关注,也将有助于中东和北非地区消除恐怖主义问题。因此,本研究为恐怖主义的决定因素提供了相对较新的证据。
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Do natural resources invite terrorism: evidence from resource-rich region
PurposeThe MENA region is very rich in terms of natural resources. At the same time, the MENA region has also been a victim of terrorism during the last few years. This study is an attempt to investigate whether there is any relationship between natural resources and terrorism in the MENA region.Design/methodology/approachWe have focused on 15 resource-rich countries located in the MENA region for the period 2002–2019. We have applied appropriate econometric techniques and have also controlled for other dominant determinants of terrorism while studying the relationship between these two variables.FindingsThe results provide solid evidence in favor of the hypothesis that natural resources encourage terrorism. We find that natural resources have positively impacted terrorism. Besides, the natural resources, other factors such as per capita GDP, trade openness, political stability, domestic investment and government expenditures have negatively impacted terrorism. Moreover, the findings suggest that FDI and corruption are irrelevant in explaining terrorism while the findings regarding employment level and terrorism are unexpected. The obtained results are robust to alternative estimating methodologies.Practical implicationsThe results have serious policy implications for the MENA region. The MENA region in general is suggested to devise appropriate policies regarding their huge natural resources so as to tackle the terrorism problem effectively. Similarly, paying favorable attention to trade liberalization, political stability, government expenditures, investment, rising income of the population in the presence of macroeconomic stability in the form of lower inflation would also help the MENA region to eradicate the problem of terrorism.Originality/valueThe available literature has largely ignored the role of natural resources in explaining the problem of terrorism. Therefore, this study has provided relatively new evidence regarding the determinants of terrorism.
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