宏观经济冲击对尼日利亚财政政策行为的影响

Oguntuase Adeniyi
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摘要

近代以来,财政政策无法实现其既定的宏观经济目标,其原因在于受到了一些宏观经济冲击的干扰,需要对这些冲击进行调查,以便提出政策建议,使财政政策不那么容易受到这些冲击的影响,从而提高其实现宏观经济目标的效率。本研究调查了宏观经济冲击对尼日利亚财政政策行为的影响。研究采用了自回归分布滞后法(ARDL)来研究宏观经济冲击对尼日利亚财政政策行为的影响。研究结果表明,政府支出、政府收入、石油价格波动和商品价格波动等冲击都对尼日利亚的财政政策行为构成长期冲击,而汇率、利率、通货膨胀率、外债和外部储备等变量则对尼日利亚的财政行为构成更多的过渡性冲击。研究普遍建议扩大国内产出,以减少财政政策对外部和内部冲击的脆弱性。这将使财政政策更有效地实现其既定的宏观经济目标。
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Impact of Macroeconomic Shocks on Fiscal Policy Behaviour in Nigeria
The inability of fiscal policy to achieve its sets of macroeconomic objectives in the recent times has been traced to interference from some sets of macroeconomic shocks which require investigation in order to bring about policy recommendations that will make fiscal policy less- vulnerable to these shocks and hence improve its effectiveness in achieving its macroeconomic objectives. This study investigated the impact of macroeconomic shocks on fiscal policy behaviour in Nigeria. Auto-regressive distributed lags (ARDL) was used to achieve the impact of macroeconomic shocks on fiscal policy behaviour in Nigeria. Findings from the study revealed that shocks like government expenditure, government revenue, oil price volatility and commodity price volatility all constitute long run shocks to fiscal policy behaviour in Nigeria while variables like exchange rate, interest rate, inflation rate, external debt and external reserve constitute more of transitory shocks to fiscal behaviour in Nigeria. The study generally recommends expansion of domestic outputs to reduce the vulnerability of fiscal policy to both external and internal shocks. This will make fiscal policy more effective in achieving its set macroeconomic objectives.
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