气候变化对哥伦比亚梅塔河流域水资源产量影响的预测评估:InVEST 模型应用

Jhon B. Valencia, V. Guryanov, Jeison Mesa-Diez, Nilton Díaz, Daniel Escobar-Carbonari, A. Gusarov
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本文利用 13 个全球气候模型对哥伦比亚 113,981 平方公里的梅塔河流域进行了水文评估,预测了在两种 CMIP6 情景(SSP 4.5 和 SSP 8.5)下 2050 年的产水量。尽管各子流域的表现不一,但该模型在梅塔河上游子流域的效果显著。这项研究预测,由于降水量的增加,尤其是在地势较平坦的地区,该流域的年产水量总体上会增加。在 SSP 4.5 情景下,梅塔河流域的水流量预计将从 5141.6 立方米/秒增加到 6397.5 立方米/秒,在 SSP 8.5 情景下将增加到 6101.5 立方米/秒,产水量分别增加了 24% 和 19%。相反,梅塔河上游子流域的产水量可能会略有下降,而卡萨纳雷河上游子流域的产水量预计将大幅增加。然而,南克拉沃河子流域的产水量预计将大幅下降,这表明可能会出现缺水现象。这项研究是 InVEST-AWY 模型在哥伦比亚大规模应用的先驱,它使用 CMIP6 全球气候模型,以综合方法对未来的产水量进行预测。
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Predictive Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Yield in the Meta River Basin, Colombia: An InVEST Model Application
This paper presents a hydrological assessment of the 113,981 km2 Meta River basin in Colombia using 13 global climate models to predict water yield for 2050 under two CMIP6 scenarios, SSP 4.5 and SSP 8.5. Despite mixed performance across subbasins, the model was notably effective in the upper Meta River subbasin. This study predicts an overall increase in the basin’s annual water yield due to increased precipitation, especially in flatter regions. Under the SSP 4.5, the Meta River basin’s water flow is expected to rise from 5141.6 m3/s to 6397.5 m3/s, and to 6101.5 m3/s under the SSP 8.5 scenario, marking 24% and 19% increases in water yield, respectively. Conversely, the upper Meta River subbasin may experience a slight decrease in water yield, while the upper Casanare River subbasin is predicted to see significant increases. The South Cravo River subbasin, however, is expected to face a considerable decline in water yield, indicating potential water scarcity. This study represents a pioneering large-scale application of the InVEST–AWY model in Colombia using CMIP6 global climate models with an integrated approach to produce predictions of future water yields.
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