对三种长期降水数据集的综合调查:哪个在黄河流域表现更好?

Ruochen Huang, Bin Yong, Fan Huang, Hao Wu, Z. Shen, Da Qian
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摘要

第五代欧洲中期天气预报中心全球陆面再分析(ERA5-Land)、多源加权集合降水(MSWEP)和气候灾害组红外降水(CHIRPS)是三种具有代表性的降水估算,它们具有准全球覆盖、高分辨率和长期记录的特点。本研究利用 39 年完整的数据记录(1981-2019 年),首次集中研究了这些降水估算值在黄河流域日尺度上的长期时空精度和区域适用性,尤其关注它们对短时极端降水事件和连续强降水事件的监测能力。结果表明,MSWEP 在几乎所有季节和子区域的表现均优于 ERA5-Land 和 CHIRPS,其皮尔逊相关系数和临界成功指数最高,均方根误差和误报率最低。ERA5-Land严重高估了降水量,尤其是在高原气候区(误报率=52.27%),但很好地反映了其在YRB中的时空模式。在探测能力方面,MSWEP 在探测极端降水,尤其是最大连续 5 天降水(RX5day)方面显示出最佳精度。MSWEP 更好地反映了长三角地区最大 1 天降水量和最大连续 5 天降水量的空间分布,但在青海南部地区有明显的高估。与ERA5-Land相比,MSWEP和CHIRPS在年降水量的时间变化一致性方面优于ERA5-Land,而ERA5-Land在捕捉极端降水时间变化,尤其是连续强降水事件方面表现良好。这项研究可为长三角地区水文气象应用和气候相关研究选择长期降水产品提供有益的指导。
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A comprehensive investigation of three long‐term precipitation datasets: Which performs better in the Yellow River basin?
The fifth generation European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis on global land surface (ERA5‐Land), the Multi‐Source Weighted‐Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP), and the Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) are three representative precipitation estimates with quasi‐global coverage, high‐resolution and long‐term record. This study concentrates on investigating, for the first time, the long‐term spatiotemporal accuracy and regional applicability of these precipitation estimates at a daily scale in the Yellow River basin (YRB) using 39 complete years of data record (1981–2019), with a special focus on their capability on monitoring the extreme precipitation events with short duration and the continuous heavy precipitation events. Results indicate that MSWEP generally performs better than ERA5‐Land and CHIRPS in almost all seasons and subregions, with the highest Pearson correlation coefficient and critical success index, lowest root mean square error and false alarm ratio. ERA5‐Land presents a severe overestimation of precipitation amount, particularly in the plateau climate region (BIAS = 52.27%), but well reflects its spatial–temporal patterns in the YRB. As for the detecting capability, MSWEP shows the best accuracy in detecting extreme precipitation, particularly in maximum consecutive 5‐day precipitation (RX5day). The MSWEP better represents the spatial distribution of maximum 1‐day precipitation and maximum consecutive 5‐day precipitation in the YRB, but it shows a significant overestimation in zone Southern Qinghai. MSWEP and CHIRPS have better performance of temporal variation consistency in annual precipitation with ground reference than ERA5‐Land, while ERA5‐Land performs well in capturing extreme precipitation temporal variation, especially for continuous heavy precipitation events. This study can provide useful guidance when choosing long‐term precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications and climate‐related studies in the YRB.
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