洪水引发的财务压力对合作社生产系统及其农民生存能力的影响:多层次研究

David Nortes Martínez, F. Grelot, Pauline Brémond, Stefano Farolfi, Juliette Rouchier
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引用次数: 0

摘要

洪水会严重扰乱农业活动。如果这些活动是生产链的一部分,就会产生多米诺骨牌效应。我们采用基于代理的建模方法,以法国一家合作酒厂为例,从个人和集体的双重视角模拟其生产动态。现金流分析表明,合作社组织中存在非明确机制,使洪水的影响传播到整个生产链,并影响葡萄种植者的应对能力,从而威胁到葡萄种植者活动和合作社酒厂本身的连续性。
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Effects of flood‐induced financial stress on the viability of a cooperative production system and its farmers: A multilevel study
Floods can severely disrupt agricultural activities. When these activities are part of production chains, domino effects can occur. We use agent‐based modeling to simulate the production dynamics of a French cooperative winery as an example of a production chain, adopting a dual individual‐collective perspective. The cash‐flow analysis shows that there are nonexplicit mechanisms in the cooperative organization that allow the propagation of flood impacts throughout the chain and influence the winegrowers' ability to cope, thus threatening the continuity of the winegrowers' activity and the cooperative winery itself.
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