CORDEX-CAM(中美洲、加勒比海和墨西哥)域的历史气象干旱:评估 RegCM4 对干旱热点的模拟

Luisa Andrade‐Gómez, Tereza Cavazos
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引用次数: 0

摘要

对 1981-2010 年期间协调区域降尺度试验-中美洲、加勒比海和墨西哥(CORDEX-CAM)域的历史气象干旱进行了分析,重点是北美季风(NAM)和仲夏干旱(MSD)区域。我们利用 CRU、CHIRPS、GPCP 和ERA5-陆地再分析(ERA5)的观测数据,根据标准化降水指数(SPI-12)和标准化降水-蒸散指数(SPEI-12)对干旱进行了分析,并评估了由ERA-Interim(Reg-ERA)和三个全球气候模式(Reg-GCMs:Reg-Had、Reg-MPI 和 Reg-GFDL)驱动的 25 公里分辨率区域气候模式 RegCM4(第 7 版)的技能。观测数据集显示干旱频率的空间变化很大,而 Reg-ERA 和 Reg-GCMs 都难以模拟干旱。RegCM4 在山区显示了正的降水和水平衡偏差,而在中美洲则显示了负的偏差,这可能是由于复杂的地形和观测数据覆盖率低造成的。尽管观测数据之间存在差异,但干旱的趋势、持续时间和严重程度在美国西部、美国-墨西哥边境地区、NAM、尤卡坦半岛和中美洲北部显示出一致的干旱热点(持续时间长的严重干旱地区),SPEI-12 的值强于 SPI-12,尤其是在亚热带地区。Reg-ERA和ERA5显示出相似的空间模式,与观测结果相比也存在相似的正负空间偏差。Reg-ERA和Reg-Had充分模拟了干旱趋势、持续时间和严重程度的空间模式,SPI-12的偏差小于SPEI-12;相比之下,Reg-MPI和Reg-GFDL高估了西北部CAM的趋势偏差。观测、再分析和 RegCM4 捕获了 NAM 和 MSD 区域之间与气候远程联系相关的反向干旱响应;然而,在 NAM 中观测到了更强的干旱信号,这似乎与大西洋多年涛动从负到正的十年期变化以及拉尼娜条件(厄尔尼诺 1+2 负相)有关。
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Historical meteorological droughts over the CORDEX‐CAM (Central America, Caribbean and Mexico) domain: Evaluating the simulation of dry hot spots with RegCM4
Historical meteorological droughts are analysed over the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment‐Central America, Caribbean and Mexico (CORDEX‐CAM) domain during 1981–2010, with particular emphasis on the North American monsoon (NAM) and the mid‐summer drought (MSD) regions. We analyse droughts based on the standardized precipitation index (SPI‐12) and the standardized precipitation‐evapotranspiration index (SPEI‐12) using observations from CRU, CHIRPS, GPCP and ERA5‐Land reanalysis (ERA5), and assess the skill of the regional climate model RegCM4 (version 7) at 25 km resolution driven by ERA‐Interim (Reg‐ERA) and by three global climate models (Reg‐GCMs: Reg‐Had, Reg‐MPI and Reg‐GFDL). Observational data sets show large spatial variations in drought frequency, and both Reg‐ERA and Reg‐GCMs have difficulties simulating it. RegCM4 shows positive precipitation and water balance biases over mountain regions and negative ones over Central America, possibly due to the complex terrain and poor observational data coverage. Despite differences among observations, the trend in droughts, duration and severity show consistent dry hot spots (regions with long‐duration severe droughts) over the western United States, the United States‐Mexico border region, the NAM, the Yucatan Peninsula and northern Central America, with stronger values of SPEI‐12 than SPI‐12, particularly over the subtropical regions. Reg‐ERA and ERA5 show similar spatial patterns and similar positive and negative spatial biases relative to observations. Reg‐ERA and Reg‐Had adequately simulate the spatial patterns of the trend, duration and severity of droughts, with smaller biases in SPI‐12 than SPEI‐12; in contrast, Reg‐MPI and Reg‐GFDL overestimate the trend biases over northwest CAM. Observations, reanalysis, and RegCM4 capture an inverse drought response between the NAM and the MSD regions linked to climate teleconnections; however, a stronger drought signal is observed in the NAM, which appears to be linked to decadal variations from negative to positive phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation combined with La Niña conditions (negative El Niño 1+2 phase).
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