新产品系列需求规划:解决 SKU 级价差偏差

IF 11.2 2区 管理学 Q1 MANAGEMENT Journal of Business Logistics Pub Date : 2024-02-18 DOI:10.1111/jbl.12373
Lance W. Saunders, Jason R. W. Merrick, Chad W. Autry, Mary C. Holcomb
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引用次数: 0

摘要

新产品供应链规划具有挑战性,主要原因是缺乏历史需求数据。然而,尽管新产品越来越依赖于判断估计,学术文献或企业却很少将新产品的需求预测过程与现有产品的需求预测过程区分开来。本研究的重点是判断错误如何导致对最高需求量和最低需求量库存单位(SKU)之间的差异估计不足,从而对新产品系列推出的供应链规划产生负面影响。我们开发了一个广义的经验模型和相应的离散事件模拟,并将其应用于一家大型消费包装品(CPG)公司在推出新的化妆品产品系列时的数据。通过这一应用,我们发现了新产品预测中固有的一种焦点判断错误(即 SKU 级价差偏差),并从理论上对这种偏差如何损害供应链绩效提供了新的认识。通过在模拟结果和现有文献之间反复推敲的经验驱动型理论构建方法,SKU 级价差偏差被证明会损害需求预测,进而损害供应链计划。我们独特的理论构建方法将计划人员的 SKU 级价差偏差确定为一种新的偏差来源,企业在引入新产品系列时应设法减少这种偏差,从而推进了理论的发展。
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New product family demand planning: Addressing SKU-level spread bias

New product supply chain planning is challenging, primarily due to the lack of historical demand data. Rarely, however, do the academic literature or companies differentiate the demand forecasting process for new products from existing ones, despite their increased reliance on judgmental estimates. This research focuses on how judgmental errors lead to an under-estimation of the difference between the highest- and lowest-demand stock-keeping units (SKUs), and consequently negatively impact supply chain planning for new product family introductions. A generalized empirical model and accompanying discrete event simulation are developed and applied to data from a major consumer packaged goods (CPG) firm during the launch of a new cosmetics product family. This application allows us to identify a focal type of judgmental error (identified as the SKU-level spread bias) inherent to new product forecasting and to provide a new theoretical understanding of how this type of bias harms supply chain performance. Via an empirically driven theory-building approach that iterates between the simulation outcomes and existing literature, SKU-level spread bias is demonstrated to harm demand forecasts and, thereby, supply chain plans. Our unique theory-building approach advances theory by identifying planner SKU-level spread bias as a new source of bias that firms should seek to mitigate when introducing new product families.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
14.40
自引率
14.60%
发文量
34
期刊介绍: Supply chain management and logistics processes play a crucial role in the success of businesses, both in terms of operations, strategy, and finances. To gain a deep understanding of these processes, it is essential to explore academic literature such as The Journal of Business Logistics. This journal serves as a scholarly platform for sharing original ideas, research findings, and effective strategies in the field of logistics and supply chain management. By providing innovative insights and research-driven knowledge, it equips organizations with the necessary tools to navigate the ever-changing business environment.
期刊最新文献
Consumer-Centric Supply Chain Management: A Literature Review, Framework, and Research Agenda Supply Chain Plasticity: A Responsive Network Capability to Ensure Resilience Last-Mile Delivery: A Process View, Framework, and Research Agenda Developing Grounded Theory Systematic Approach for Logistics and Supply Chain Management Research Do Supply Chain Characteristics Influence a Rival Firm's Responses to a Focal Firm's Product Preannouncements? A Competitive Dynamics Perspective
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