基于时变窗口的不可兑换代币(NFT)市场羊群检测

IF 9 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE China Finance Review International Pub Date : 2024-02-23 DOI:10.1108/cfri-05-2023-0118
Eminda Ishan De Silva, Gayithri Niluka Kuruppu, Sandun Dassanayake
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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的 2021-2022 年间,不可兑换代币(NFT)市场经历了急剧增长和突然下滑。2021 年底和 2022 年初,市场价格飙升,NFT 被高价出售。尽管如此,到 2022 年 4 月,市场出现回调,非转口贸易产品的价格恢复到较为合理的水平。这可能是模仿更大群体的行动或判断的结果,但尚未得到系统证实。本研究基于 2021 年 7 月 1 日至 2022 年 6 月 30 日期间从 OpenSea 公开界面收集的销售数据,采用收益率的横截面绝对偏差(CSAD)和普通最小二乘法(OLS)检验移动时间窗口为 10 天、20 天和 30 天的羊群行为。根据数据分析结果,从 2021 年 7 月 1 日到 2022 年 6 月 30 日,由于媒体的移动,在 10 天、20 天和 30 天的时间窗口内出现了羊群行为。研究结果表明,这种行为是存在的,并且与市场的整体行为一致。作为对这一方法的补充,还采用了基于关键词数量的分析,以确定羊群行为的根本原因。通过这种综合方法,本研究不仅揭示了羊群行为的根源,还对羊群行为发生的时间窗口进行了评估,并考虑了影响这些趋势的合理的社会经济背景。
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Time-varying window-based herding detection in the non-fungible token (NFT) marketplace

Purpose

The non-fungible token (NFT) market had undergone dramatic growth and a sudden decline during 2021–2022. The market experienced a surge in prices in late 2021 and early 2022, with NFTs being sold at inflated prices. Despite this, by April 2022, the market underwent a correction, and the prices of NFTs returned to more reasonable levels. This can be a result of imitating the actions or judgments of a larger group, which is not systematically proven yet. Therefore, this study systematically investigates the applicability of herding behavior in the NFT market.

Design/methodology/approach

This research employs cross-sectional absolute deviation (CSAD) of returns and ordinary least squares (OLS) to test herding behavior with moving time windows of 10, 20 and 30 days based on the sales data collected from public interface of OpenSea between July 1, 2021 and June 30, 2022. Additionally, NFT-related keyword usage analysis is done for the detected herding periods.

Findings

As per the results of the data analyzed, herding behavior was evidenced using 10-, 20- and 30-day time windows from July 1, 2021 to June 30, 2022because of media movement. The findings revealed that this behavior was present and aligned with the overall behavior of the market.

Originality/value

This study introduces CSAD to examine herding behavior patterns within the NFT market. Complementing this method, keyword count-based analysis is employed to identify the underlying causes of herding behavior. Through this comprehensive approach, this study not only uncovers the roots of herding behavior but also offers an assessment of the time windows during which it occurs, considering the plausible socioeconomic contexts that influence these trends.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
12.40
自引率
1.20%
发文量
112
期刊介绍: China Finance Review International publishes original and high-quality theoretical and empirical articles focusing on financial and economic issues arising from China's reform, opening-up, economic development, and system transformation. The journal serves as a platform for exchange between Chinese finance scholars and international financial economists, covering a wide range of topics including monetary policy, banking, international trade and finance, corporate finance, asset pricing, market microstructure, corporate governance, incentive studies, fiscal policy, public management, and state-owned enterprise reform.
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