利用深度学习进行预测分析,优化数字资产的投资组合管理和风险评估

Qishuo Cheng, Le Yang, Jiajian Zheng, Miao Tian, Duan Xin
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引用次数: 0

摘要

近年来,人工智能领域对投资组合管理问题进行了广泛研究,但现有的基于深度学习的量化交易方法还存在一些有待改进的地方。首先,股票预测模式单一,往往一个模型只训练一个交易专家,交易决策完全基于模型的预测结果。其次,模型使用的数据源相对简单,只考虑股票本身的数据,忽略了整个市场风险对股票的影响。本文将DQN算法以一种新颖、直接的方式引入到资产管理组合中,其性能大大超过了基准,这充分证明了DRL算法在资产组合管理中的有效性,这也启示我们在考虑金融问题的复杂性时,算法的使用应充分与问题相结合,以适应问题的发展。最后,本文通过选择 Q 值最大的资产和行动来实现该策略。由于不同资产作为环境分别训练,不同资产之间可能存在 Q 值漂移现象(不同资产的 Q 值分布区域不同),容易导致资产选择错误。可以考虑增加约束条件,使不同资产的 Q 值共享一个 Q 值分布,以改善结果。
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Optimizing Portfolio Management and Risk Assessment in Digital Assets Using Deep Learning for Predictive Analysis
Portfolio management issues have been extensively studied in the field of artificial intelligence in recent years, but existing deep learning-based quantitative trading methods have some areas where they could be improved. First of all, the prediction mode of stocks is singular; often, only one trading expert is trained by a model, and the trading decision is solely based on the prediction results of the model. Secondly, the data source used by the model is relatively simple, and only considers the data of the stock itself, ignoring the impact of the whole market risk on the stock. In this paper, the DQN algorithm is introduced into asset management portfolios in a novel and straightforward way, and the performance greatly exceeds the benchmark, which fully proves the effectiveness of the DRL algorithm in portfolio management. This also inspires us to consider the complexity of financial problems, and the use of algorithms should be fully combined with the problems to adapt. Finally, in this paper, the strategy is implemented by selecting the assets and actions with the largest Q value. Since different assets are trained separately as environments, there may be a phenomenon of Q value drift among different assets (different assets have different Q value distribution areas), which may easily lead to incorrect asset selection. Consider adding constraints so that the Q values of different assets share a Q value distribution to improve results.
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