Predicting the Rapid Progression of Mild Cognitive Impairment by Intestinal Flora and Blood Indicators through Machine Learning Method.

Introduction: The aim of the work was to establish a prediction model of mild cognitive impairment (MCI) progression based on intestinal flora by machine learning method.

Method: A total of 1,013 patients were recruited, in which 87 patients with MCI finished a two-year follow-up. To establish a prediction model, 61 patients were randomly divided into a training set and 26 patients were divided into a testing set. A total of 121 features including demographic characteristics, hematological indicators, and intestinal flora abundance were analyzed.

Results: Of the 87 patients who finished a two-year follow-up, 44 presented rapid progression. Model 1 was established based on 121 features with the accuracy 85%, sensitivity 85%, and specificity 83%. Model 2 was based on the first fifteen features of model 1 (triglyceride, uric acid, alanine transaminase, F-Clostridiaceae, G-Megamonas, S-Megamonas, G-Shigella, G-Shigella, S-Shigella, average hemoglobin concentration, G-Alistipes, S-Collinsella, median cell count, average hemoglobin volume, low-density lipoprotein), with the accuracy 97%, sensitivity 92%, and specificity 100%. Model 3 was based on the first ten features of model 1, with the accuracy 97%, sensitivity 86%, and specificity 100%. Other models based on the demographic characteristics, hematological indicators, or intestinal flora abundance features presented lower sensitivity and specificity.

Conclusion: The 15 features (including intestinal flora abundance) could establish an effective model for predicting rapid MCI progression.