{"title":"准主权违约风险的传递：波多黎各的证据","authors":"Anusha Chari, Ryan Leary, Toan Phan","doi":"10.1057/s41308-023-00233-8","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>Puerto Rico’s unique characteristics as a US territory allow us to examine the transmission of quasi-sovereign default risk to the real economy. Increased default probabilities predict a significant decline in monthly employment growth in government-demand-dependent industries. The relationship between increased default risk and declining employment growth further strengthens when the government undertakes austerity measures. In addition, fiscal austerity reduces output growth via a local fiscal multiplier effect. Overall, the paper presents evidence for a novel demand-driven transmission mechanism where sovereign default risk operates through austerity risk and government demand dependence.</p>","PeriodicalId":47177,"journal":{"name":"Imf Economic Review","volume":"171 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":3.3000,"publicationDate":"2024-02-29","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"The Transmission of Quasi-Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico\",\"authors\":\"Anusha Chari, Ryan Leary, Toan Phan\",\"doi\":\"10.1057/s41308-023-00233-8\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p>Puerto Rico’s unique characteristics as a US territory allow us to examine the transmission of quasi-sovereign default risk to the real economy. Increased default probabilities predict a significant decline in monthly employment growth in government-demand-dependent industries. The relationship between increased default risk and declining employment growth further strengthens when the government undertakes austerity measures. In addition, fiscal austerity reduces output growth via a local fiscal multiplier effect. Overall, the paper presents evidence for a novel demand-driven transmission mechanism where sovereign default risk operates through austerity risk and government demand dependence.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":47177,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"volume\":\"171 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.3000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-02-29\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Imf Economic Review\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00233-8\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q1\",\"JCRName\":\"BUSINESS, FINANCE\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Imf Economic Review","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1057/s41308-023-00233-8","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q1","JCRName":"BUSINESS, FINANCE","Score":null,"Total":0}
The Transmission of Quasi-Sovereign Default Risk: Evidence from Puerto Rico
Puerto Rico’s unique characteristics as a US territory allow us to examine the transmission of quasi-sovereign default risk to the real economy. Increased default probabilities predict a significant decline in monthly employment growth in government-demand-dependent industries. The relationship between increased default risk and declining employment growth further strengthens when the government undertakes austerity measures. In addition, fiscal austerity reduces output growth via a local fiscal multiplier effect. Overall, the paper presents evidence for a novel demand-driven transmission mechanism where sovereign default risk operates through austerity risk and government demand dependence.
期刊介绍：
The IMF Economic Review is the official research journal of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). It is dedicated to publishing peer-reviewed, high-quality, context-related academic research on open-economy macroeconomics. It emphasizes rigorous analysis with an empirical orientation that is of interest to a broad audience, including academics and policymakers. Studies that borrow from, and interact with, other fields such as finance, international trade, political economy, labor, economic history or development are also welcome.
The views presented in published papers are those of the authors and should not be attributed to, or reported as, reflecting the position of the IMF, its Executive Board, or any other organization mentioned herein.
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