Estimating impacts of the US EITC program on domestic violence

Despite the long-identified relationship between poverty and risk for intimate partner violence (IPV) and non-intimate partner domestic violence (DV), there is limited work on the relationship between public anti-poverty programs and the incidence of such violence in the United States. In this study, we examine the effect of state Earned Income Tax Credits (EITC) on reports of lethal IPV and DV, a previously unstudied relationship. We offer a conceptual framework for understanding the potentially countervailing mechanisms by which state EITCs could affect lethal violence. We use a combination of empirical strategies, including new econometric estimators, to causally identify how changes in state EITCs affect the rate of reported IPV and DV, measured as homicide rates per 100,000 population. We find no significant causal effects of state EITC (presence or relative generosity) on lethal IPV or DV at a population level. Our work provides insight into the mechanisms at play, and suggests a role for more targeted policy interventions to mitigate individual effects.