页岩革命与石油市场的动力

The Economic Journal Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI:10.1093/ej/ueae013

Nathan S Balke, Xin Jin, Mine Yücel

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引用次数: 0

摘要

我们建立并估算了世界石油市场的动态结构模型，以量化页岩革命的影响。我们将页岩革命建模为页岩生产成本的下降，发现页岩产量的增加会在短期内将油价降低 24%，一旦页岩油过渡完成，油价会降低 48%。当前的石油价格波动性根据时间跨度会降低 8% 到 23%。我们还发现，面对页岩油产量的急剧增加，欧佩克的核心行动是保持其市场份额不变。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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The Shale Revolution and the Dynamics of the Oil Market

We build and estimate a dynamic, structural model of the world oil market to quantify the impact of the shale revolution. We model the shale revolution as a decrease in shale production costs and find that the resultant increase in shale production lowers oil prices by 24% in the short run and 48% once the shale oil transition is complete. Current oil price volatility is lowered by 8 to 23% depending on the horizon. We also find OPEC Core acts to keep its market share constant in the face of the dramatic increase in shale production.

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The Economic Journal

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