Artificial Intelligence Applied to Forced Spirometry in Primary Care

Introduction

This study aims to create an artificial intelligence (AI) based machine learning (ML) model capable of predicting a spirometric obstructive pattern using variables with the highest predictive power derived from an active case-finding program for COPD in primary care.

Material and methods

A total of 1190 smokers, aged 30–80 years old with no prior history of respiratory disease, underwent spirometry with bronchodilation. The sample was analyzed using AI tools. Based on an exploratory data analysis (EDA), independent variables (according to mutual information analysis) were trained using a gradient boosting algorithm (GBT) and validated through cross-validation.

Results

With an area under the curve close to unity, the model predicted a spirometric obstructive pattern using variables with the highest predictive power: FEV1_theoretical_pre values. Sensitivity: 93%. Positive predictive value: 94%. Specificity: 97%. Negative predictive value: 96%. Accuracy: 95%. Precision: 94%.

Conclusion

An ML model can predict the presence of an obstructive pattern in spirometry in a primary care smoking population with no prior diagnosis of respiratory disease using the FEV1_theoretical_pre values with an accuracy and precision exceeding 90%. Further studies including clinical data and strategies for integrating AI into clinical workflow are needed.