Study on Domino Probability of Spherical Tank Based on New Failure Model

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to use the residual strength theory to study the probability of a domino effect accident occurring following the explosion of a spherical tank. We build a novel domino effect accident probability model, using Monte Carlo methods to simulate the ejection of debris. At the same time, the velocity and velocity distribution of fragments ejecting from the upper and lower parts of the explosive spherical tank are obtained. Finally, the relationship between the volume of the exploding spherical tank and the target, the crater Angle (ψ₀ and ϕ₀) of debris impacting the target, the probability of target destruction and the risk of domino effect accidents are considered. The results show that the maximum speed of debris from the lower part of a spherical tank exceeds that from its upper part, and the hazard associated with the debris from the lower part cannot be ignored. With the same target volume and spacing, the probability of a domino effect accident caused by projectile debris from the upper half of an exploding spherical tank is higher than that from the lower half. As theψ₀ value increases, the probability of target failure gradually decreases, and as the ϕ₀ value decreases, the probability of target failure also gradually decreases. Moreover, with changes in ψ₀ and ϕ₀, the probabilities of destruction and the occurrence of a domino effect accident significantly change. The results of this paper can provide guidance for the risk assessment of oil and gas storage tanks.