基于变压器的选择模型:分类优化评估工具

IF 1.9 4区 管理学 Q3 OPERATIONS RESEARCH & MANAGEMENT SCIENCE Naval Research Logistics Pub Date : 2024-03-22 DOI:10.1002/nav.22183
Zhenkang Peng, Ying Rong, Tianning Zhu
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引用次数: 0

摘要

评估算法的有效性在推动各领域的理论和实践方面都发挥着举足轻重的作用。与预测模型不同,由于决策与底层数据生成过程之间的关系错综复杂,决策算法的评估不能直接依赖于真实数据。因此,模拟器成为评估决策算法有效性不可或缺的工具。在本文中,我们旨在利用收益管理中广泛应用的分类决策来说明基于机器学习的模拟的使用情况。整个过程可以概括为:我们利用经过修改的基于 Transformer 的选择模型作为模拟器,生成一个模拟消费者购买行为的合成数据集。在训练了 MNL、DeepFM 和 DeepFM-a 模型(所有这些模型都能实时快速地提供分类决策)之后,我们利用模拟器来评估不同选择模型所规定的每种分类所产生的收益。这种方法减轻了验证改变真实世界观测数据的决策模型的挑战。为了展示这种模拟方法的优势,我们进行了各种数值研究。这些研究旨在考察外部选项的吸引力、数据大小、特征数量和卡片性的影响。诚然,由于模拟器与复杂的消费者购买选择数据集之间的紧密结合,一些数值观察结果可能难以解释。尽管如此,通过使用模拟器,我们还是能够对比 MNL 模型和 DeepFM/DeepFM-a 模型之间的差异,从而揭示它们各自的模型规格错误。
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Transformer‐based choice model: A tool for assortment optimization evaluation
Assessing the efficacy of algorithms plays a pivotal role in advancing various fields, both in theory and practice. Unlike the predictive models, due to the intricate relationship between decisions and the underlying data‐generating processes, the evaluation of decision algorithms cannot directly rely on real data. Hence, a simulator becomes indispensable for appraising decision algorithm effectiveness. In this paper, we aim to leverage assortment decisions, a widely used application in revenue management, to illustrate the utilization of a machine learning‐based simulation. The process can be summarised as: we utilize the modified Transformer‐based choice model, acting as a simulator, to generate a synthetic dataset that mimics consumer purchasing behavior. After training the MNL, DeepFM, and DeepFM‐a models, all of which can swiftly provide assortment decisions in real‐time, we utilize the simulator to evaluate the revenue generated by each assortment prescribed by different choice models. This approach mitigates the challenge of validating decision models that alter real‐world observed data. To show the benefit of such a simulation approach, we have conducted various numerical studies. These studies aim to examine the impact of outside option attractiveness, data size, the number of features, and cardinality. Admittedly, due to the close alignment between the simulator and complex consumer purchase choice datasets, some numerical observations may be challenging to explain. Nevertheless, by employing the simulator, we are able to contrast the differences between the MNL and DeepFM/DeepFM‐a models, shedding light on their respective model misspecifications.
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来源期刊
Naval Research Logistics
Naval Research Logistics 管理科学-运筹学与管理科学
CiteScore
4.20
自引率
4.30%
发文量
47
审稿时长
8 months
期刊介绍: Submissions that are most appropriate for NRL are papers addressing modeling and analysis of problems motivated by real-world applications; major methodological advances in operations research and applied statistics; and expository or survey pieces of lasting value. Areas represented include (but are not limited to) probability, statistics, simulation, optimization, game theory, quality, scheduling, reliability, maintenance, supply chain, decision analysis, and combat models. Special issues devoted to a single topic are published occasionally, and proposals for special issues are welcomed by the Editorial Board.
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