The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID-associated mortality: A descriptive longitudinal study of UK data

Background

It has been previously reported in the literature that the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in overall excess deaths and an increase in non-COVID deaths during the pandemic period.

Specifically, our research elucidates the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on non-COVID associated mortality.

Study aim

To compare mortality rates in non-COVID conditions before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in England and Wales.

Study design

Annual mortality data for the years 2011–2019 (pre-pandemic) and 2020 (pandemic) in England and Wales were retrieved from the Office for National Statistics (ONS). These data were filtered by ICD-10 codes for nine conditions with high associated mortality. We calculated mortality numbers – overall and age stratified (20–64 and 65+ years) and rates per 100 000, using annual mid-year population estimates.

Methods

Interrupted time series analyses were conducted using segmented quasi-Poisson regression to identify whether there was a statistically significant change (p < 0.05) in condition-specific death rates following the pandemic onset.

Results

Eight of the nine conditions investigated in this study had significant changes in mortality rate during the pandemic period (2020). All-age mortality rate was significantly increased in: ‘Symptoms Signs and Ill-defined conditions’, ‘Cirrhosis and Other Diseases of the Liver’, and ‘Malignant Neoplasm of the Breast’, whereas ‘Chronic Lower Respiratory Disorders’ saw a significant decrease. Age-stratified analyses also revealed significant increases in the 20–64 age-group in: ‘Cerebrovascular Disorders’, ‘Dementia and Alzheimer's Disease’, and ‘Ischaemic Heart Diseases’.

Conclusion

Trends in non-COVID condition-specific mortality rates from 2011 to 2020 revealed that some non-COVID conditions were disproportionately affected during the pandemic. This may be due to the direct impact COVID-19 had on these conditions or the effect the public health response had on non-COVID risk factor development and condition-related management. Further work is required to understand the reasons behind these disproportionate changes.