考虑到无症状病例在实际无症状病例和无症状前病例之间的分布情况,建立 COVID-19 传播的数学模型

I. Kolesin, E. Zhitkova
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引用次数: 0

摘要

研究了在一个动态模型中表示 SARS-CoV-2 感染的三种类型:无症状、症状前和症状。此外,还提出了一个分区模型,将无症状病例分为症状前病例和实际无症状病例。利用圣彼得堡 COVID-19 第一波的数据和实际无症状病例在所有无症状病例中所占的比例对所提出的模型进行了验证,结果表明该模型具有适当的行为。研究了无症状前病例对有症状病例总数的贡献。确定了对严格检疫的无症状带菌者的高比例进行解释的必要性。
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Mathematical Modeling Of the Spread of COVID-19, Taking Into Account the Distribution of Asymptomatic Cases between Actually Asymptomatic and Pre-Symptomatic Cases
The possibility of representation in a dynamic model of the three types of SARS-CoV-2 infection: asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic is studied. Furthermore, a compartmental model was proposed, with a branching of asymptomatic cases into pre-symptomatic and actually asymptomatic cases. Verification of the proposed model using data from the first wave of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg and the proportion of actually asymptomatic cases among all asymptomatic cases demonstrated adequate model behavior. The contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to the total number of symptomatic cases was studied. The need to account for the high proportion of asymptomatic carriers in strict quarantine was identified.
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