{"title":"考虑到无症状病例在实际无症状病例和无症状前病例之间的分布情况,建立 COVID-19 传播的数学模型","authors":"I. Kolesin, E. Zhitkova","doi":"10.17537/2024.19.52","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"\n The possibility of representation in a dynamic model of the three types of SARS-CoV-2 infection: asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic is studied. Furthermore, a compartmental model was proposed, with a branching of asymptomatic cases into pre-symptomatic and actually asymptomatic cases. Verification of the proposed model using data from the first wave of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg and the proportion of actually asymptomatic cases among all asymptomatic cases demonstrated adequate model behavior. The contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to the total number of symptomatic cases was studied. The need to account for the high proportion of asymptomatic carriers in strict quarantine was identified.\n","PeriodicalId":509888,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Biology and Bioinformatics","volume":" 15","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Mathematical Modeling Of the Spread of COVID-19, Taking Into Account the Distribution of Asymptomatic Cases between Actually Asymptomatic and Pre-Symptomatic Cases\",\"authors\":\"I. Kolesin, E. Zhitkova\",\"doi\":\"10.17537/2024.19.52\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"\\n The possibility of representation in a dynamic model of the three types of SARS-CoV-2 infection: asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic is studied. Furthermore, a compartmental model was proposed, with a branching of asymptomatic cases into pre-symptomatic and actually asymptomatic cases. Verification of the proposed model using data from the first wave of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg and the proportion of actually asymptomatic cases among all asymptomatic cases demonstrated adequate model behavior. The contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to the total number of symptomatic cases was studied. The need to account for the high proportion of asymptomatic carriers in strict quarantine was identified.\\n\",\"PeriodicalId\":509888,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Mathematical Biology and Bioinformatics\",\"volume\":\" 15\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-21\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Mathematical Biology and Bioinformatics\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.17537/2024.19.52\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Mathematical Biology and Bioinformatics","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.17537/2024.19.52","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Mathematical Modeling Of the Spread of COVID-19, Taking Into Account the Distribution of Asymptomatic Cases between Actually Asymptomatic and Pre-Symptomatic Cases
The possibility of representation in a dynamic model of the three types of SARS-CoV-2 infection: asymptomatic, pre-symptomatic and symptomatic is studied. Furthermore, a compartmental model was proposed, with a branching of asymptomatic cases into pre-symptomatic and actually asymptomatic cases. Verification of the proposed model using data from the first wave of COVID-19 in St. Petersburg and the proportion of actually asymptomatic cases among all asymptomatic cases demonstrated adequate model behavior. The contribution of pre-symptomatic cases to the total number of symptomatic cases was studied. The need to account for the high proportion of asymptomatic carriers in strict quarantine was identified.