陶纳丝虫病和神经囊虫病传播的数学模型

IF 0.9 Q3 MATHEMATICS, APPLIED Computational and Mathematical Methods Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI:10.1155/2024/2550598
Gideon Eustace Rwabona, Verdiana Grace Masanja, Sayoki Mfinanga, Abdoelnaser Degoot, Silas Mirau
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引用次数: 0

摘要

在本研究中,我们提出了一种泰尼丝虫病和神经囊虫病共同动力学数学模型,并对其进行了严格分析。为了理解所提模型的基本动态,我们通过补全微分过程研究了解的实在性和有界性等基本系统性质。利用新一代矩阵法计算了基本繁殖数,分析表明当 R01 时,疾病持续存在。利用雅各布矩阵分析了平衡点的局部稳定性,并利用李亚普诺夫函数技术进行了全局分析,结果表明当 R0>1 时,疾病流行平衡点是全局稳定的。为了确定对所提模型影响最大的参数,采用了偏相关系数技术。数值结果表明,该模型很好地符合传播动态,即通过人和猪两个种群的传播,模型系统在一段时间后趋于稳定,这表明了所提模型的有效性。此外,模型模拟结果显示,人感染猪尾蚴病后的脱落习惯、不良烹饪习惯或食用生猪肉或未煮熟的猪肉产品对神经包虫病和猪尾蚴病在社区的传播有较大影响。因此,本研究建议,为了控制大尾蚴病和神经囊虫病,有效的疾病控制措施应主要优先考虑卫生行为和适当烹调猪肉至所需温度。
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A Mathematical Model for Transmission of Taeniasis and Neurocysticercosis

In this study, we present a mathematical model for the codynamics of taeniasis and neurocysticercosis and rigorously analyze it. To understand the underlying dynamics of the proposed model, basic system properties such as the positivity and boundedness of solutions are investigated through the completing differential process. The basic reproduction number was calculated using the next-generation matrix method, and the analysis showed that when , the disease in the community eventually dies out, and when , the diseases persist. Local stability of the equilibria was analyzed using the Jacobian matrix, and Lyapunov function techniques were used to determine the global analysis, which showed that the endemic equilibrium point was globally stable when . On the other hand, the disease-free equilibrium was determined to be globally stable when . To identify the most influential parameters of the proposed model, partial correlation coefficient techniques were used. The numerical results depict that the model aligns well with the transmission dynamics, which goes through two populations: humans and pigs, whereby the model system stabilizes after some time, showing the validity of the proposed model. Furthermore, the simulations of the proposed model revealed that the shedding habit of infected humans with taeniasis and the bad cooking habit or eating of raw or undercooked pork products have a higher impact on the spread of neurocysticercosis and taeniasis in the community. Hence, this study proposes that in order to control taeniasis and neurocysticercosis, effective disease control measures should primarily prioritize hygienic behaviour and proper cooking of pork meat to the required temperature.

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