东亚春季干旱多变性的主导模式及相关驱动因素

Qing-hong Zhao, Song Yang, Hong-ying Tian, Kai-qiang Deng
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摘要

:近几十年来,东亚地区的干旱事件越来越频繁,强度也越来越大,导致了巨大的社会经济影响。尽管对干旱的个案或个别地区进行了广泛研究,但其主要变异性和相关原因仍不清楚。本研究基于1979-2020年标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)和ERA5再分析产品,评估了东亚地区春旱的严重程度,并研究了其变化和相关驱动因素。研究结果表明,近几十年来,华北和蒙古春季出现了显著的干旱趋势,而中国西南地区则出现了相反的湿润趋势。SPEI 变率的第一个经验正交函数模式揭示了类似的跷跷板模式,即中国西北部、蒙古、华北、韩国和日本的干旱更为严重,而中国西南部和东南亚的湿润则有所增加。进一步研究发现,华北(西南)地表的异常干(湿)与前一年冬季和早春的异常高(低)气温、较少(较多)降水和土壤水分减少(增加)有很大关系,这受到异常反气旋(气旋)的调节,从而导致水汽辐合减少(增加)。东亚春季干湿模式还与中东太平洋寒冷的海面温度异常有关。这项研究的结果对改进东亚春季干旱事件的预测具有重要意义。
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Leading Pattern of Spring Drought Variability over East Asia and Associated Drivers
: Drought events have become more frequent and intense over East Asia in recent decades, leading to huge socioeconomic impacts. Although the droughts have been studied extensively by cases or for individual regions, their leading variability and associated causes remain unclear. Based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and ERA5 reanalysis product from 1979 to 2020, this study evealuates the severity of spring droughts in East Asia and investigates their variations and associated drivers. The results indicate that North China and Mongolia have experienced remarkable trends toward dryness during spring in recent decades, while southwestern China has witnessed an opposite trend toward wetness. The first Empirical Orthogonal Function mode of SPEI variability reveals a similar seesawing pattern, with more severe dryness in northwestern China, Mongolia, North China, South Korea, and Japan but increased wetness in Southwestern China and southeast Asia. Further investigation reveals that the anomalously dry (wet) surface in North (Southwestern) China is significantly associated with anomalously high (low) temperature, less (more) precipitation, and reduced (increased) soil moisture during the previous winter and early spring, regulated by an anomalous anticyclone (cyclone) and thus reduced (increased) water vapor convergence. The spring dry-wet pattern in East Asia is also linked to cold sea surface temperature anomalies in the central-eastern Pacific. The findings of this study have important implications for improving the prediction of spring drought events in East Asia.
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