Association between chronic pain and attrition: a prospective analysis of a national sample of midlife adults in the USA, 2004–2014

Health conditions of participants can significantly affect longitudinal drop-out in population-based epidemiological surveys, yet few studies have examined the association between chronic pain (CP) and follow-up attrition.The Midlife in the United States study (MIDUS) was used to explore the longitudinal association between CP and survey attrition. CP was assessed by three measures: the presence of CP, CP interference and the number of pain sites at MIDUS 2. The types of sample attrition at MIDUS 3 encompassed several categories: complete, refusal to participate, inability to participate due to physical or mental constraints, deceased, non-working numbers, participants consistently unavailable for interviews, global refusal or withdrew from the study and not fielded. Multinomial logistic regression was employed to examine these relationships and to explore the moderation effects of sociodemographic variables and multiple chronic conditions on these associations.High-interference pain was associated with a 162% increased risk (RR 2.62, 95% CI 1.12 to 6.16, p=0.026) of being physically and mentally unable to participate in MIDUS 3. Individuals reporting the presence of CP (RR 0.65, 95% CI 0.45 to 0.95, p=0.028) and those with three or more CP sites (RR 0.48, 95% CI 0.27 to 0.87, p=0.016) were less likely to refuse participation in MIDUS 3. However, no further significant associations or moderating effects were identified.Population-based epidemiological surveys may be susceptible to attrition bias from participants with CP, necessitating the adoption of adaptive survey methodologies.