{"title":"探索人工通用智能的制约因素:人机互动的博弈论模型","authors":"Mehmet S. Ismail","doi":"10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2024.03.004","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>The potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems has sparked intense debate among researchers, policymakers, and the public due to their potential to surpass human intelligence in all domains. This note argues that for an AI to be considered “general”, it should achieve superhuman performance not only in zero-sum games but also in general-sum games, where winning or losing is not clearly defined. In this note, I propose a game-theoretic framework that captures the strategic interactions between a representative human agent and a potential superhuman machine agent. Four assumptions underpin this framework: Superhuman Machine, Machine Strategy, Rationality, and Strategic Unpredictability. The main result is an impossibility theorem, establishing that these assumptions are inconsistent when taken together, but relaxing any one of them results in a consistent set of assumptions. This note contributes to a better understanding of the theoretical context that can shape the development of superhuman AI.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":51118,"journal":{"name":"Mathematical Social Sciences","volume":"129 ","pages":"Pages 70-76"},"PeriodicalIF":0.5000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000350/pdfft?md5=d91abed3d66e2e1fea4feb7ce1a16259&pid=1-s2.0-S0165489624000350-main.pdf","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Exploring the constraints on artificial general intelligence: A game-theoretic model of human vs machine interaction\",\"authors\":\"Mehmet S. Ismail\",\"doi\":\"10.1016/j.mathsocsci.2024.03.004\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<div><p>The potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems has sparked intense debate among researchers, policymakers, and the public due to their potential to surpass human intelligence in all domains. This note argues that for an AI to be considered “general”, it should achieve superhuman performance not only in zero-sum games but also in general-sum games, where winning or losing is not clearly defined. In this note, I propose a game-theoretic framework that captures the strategic interactions between a representative human agent and a potential superhuman machine agent. Four assumptions underpin this framework: Superhuman Machine, Machine Strategy, Rationality, and Strategic Unpredictability. The main result is an impossibility theorem, establishing that these assumptions are inconsistent when taken together, but relaxing any one of them results in a consistent set of assumptions. This note contributes to a better understanding of the theoretical context that can shape the development of superhuman AI.</p></div>\",\"PeriodicalId\":51118,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"Mathematical Social Sciences\",\"volume\":\"129 \",\"pages\":\"Pages 70-76\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.5000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-22\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000350/pdfft?md5=d91abed3d66e2e1fea4feb7ce1a16259&pid=1-s2.0-S0165489624000350-main.pdf\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"Mathematical Social Sciences\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"96\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000350\",\"RegionNum\":4,\"RegionCategory\":\"经济学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"Q4\",\"JCRName\":\"ECONOMICS\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Mathematical Social Sciences","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165489624000350","RegionNum":4,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q4","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
Exploring the constraints on artificial general intelligence: A game-theoretic model of human vs machine interaction
The potential emergence of artificial general intelligence (AGI) systems has sparked intense debate among researchers, policymakers, and the public due to their potential to surpass human intelligence in all domains. This note argues that for an AI to be considered “general”, it should achieve superhuman performance not only in zero-sum games but also in general-sum games, where winning or losing is not clearly defined. In this note, I propose a game-theoretic framework that captures the strategic interactions between a representative human agent and a potential superhuman machine agent. Four assumptions underpin this framework: Superhuman Machine, Machine Strategy, Rationality, and Strategic Unpredictability. The main result is an impossibility theorem, establishing that these assumptions are inconsistent when taken together, but relaxing any one of them results in a consistent set of assumptions. This note contributes to a better understanding of the theoretical context that can shape the development of superhuman AI.
期刊介绍:
The international, interdisciplinary journal Mathematical Social Sciences publishes original research articles, survey papers, short notes and book reviews. The journal emphasizes the unity of mathematical modelling in economics, psychology, political sciences, sociology and other social sciences.
Topics of particular interest include the fundamental aspects of choice, information, and preferences (decision science) and of interaction (game theory and economic theory), the measurement of utility, welfare and inequality, the formal theories of justice and implementation, voting rules, cooperative games, fair division, cost allocation, bargaining, matching, social networks, and evolutionary and other dynamics models.
Papers published by the journal are mathematically rigorous but no bounds, from above or from below, limits their technical level. All mathematical techniques may be used. The articles should be self-contained and readable by social scientists trained in mathematics.