{"title":"基于区块链的球迷代币的预期收益和事件驱动损失:来自国际足联世界杯的证据","authors":"Aman Saggu, Lennart Ante, Ender Demir","doi":"arxiv-2403.15810","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"National football teams increasingly issue tradeable blockchain-based fan\ntokens to strategically enhance fan engagement. This study investigates the\nimpact of 2022 World Cup matches on the dynamic performance of each team's fan\ntoken. The event study uncovers fan token returns surged six months before the\nWorld Cup, driven by positive anticipation effects. However, intraday analysis\nreveals a reversal of fan token returns consistently declining and trading\nvolumes rising as matches unfold. To explain findings, we uncover asymmetries\nwhereby defeats in high-stake matches caused a plunge in fan token returns,\ncompared to low-stake matches, intensifying in magnitude for knockout matches.\nContrarily, victories enhance trading volumes, reflecting increased market\nactivity without a corresponding positive effect on returns. We align findings\nwith the classic market adage \"buy the rumor, sell the news,\" unveiling\ncognitive biases and nuances in investor sentiment, cautioning the dichotomy of\npre-event optimism and subsequent performance declines.","PeriodicalId":501478,"journal":{"name":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0000,"publicationDate":"2024-03-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Anticipatory Gains and Event-Driven Losses in Blockchain-Based Fan Tokens: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup\",\"authors\":\"Aman Saggu, Lennart Ante, Ender Demir\",\"doi\":\"arxiv-2403.15810\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"National football teams increasingly issue tradeable blockchain-based fan\\ntokens to strategically enhance fan engagement. This study investigates the\\nimpact of 2022 World Cup matches on the dynamic performance of each team's fan\\ntoken. The event study uncovers fan token returns surged six months before the\\nWorld Cup, driven by positive anticipation effects. However, intraday analysis\\nreveals a reversal of fan token returns consistently declining and trading\\nvolumes rising as matches unfold. To explain findings, we uncover asymmetries\\nwhereby defeats in high-stake matches caused a plunge in fan token returns,\\ncompared to low-stake matches, intensifying in magnitude for knockout matches.\\nContrarily, victories enhance trading volumes, reflecting increased market\\nactivity without a corresponding positive effect on returns. We align findings\\nwith the classic market adage \\\"buy the rumor, sell the news,\\\" unveiling\\ncognitive biases and nuances in investor sentiment, cautioning the dichotomy of\\npre-event optimism and subsequent performance declines.\",\"PeriodicalId\":501478,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure\",\"volume\":\"1 1\",\"pages\":\"\"},\"PeriodicalIF\":0.0000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-03-23\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"1085\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/arxiv-2403.15810\",\"RegionNum\":0,\"RegionCategory\":null,\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"\",\"PubModel\":\"\",\"JCR\":\"\",\"JCRName\":\"\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"arXiv - QuantFin - Trading and Market Microstructure","FirstCategoryId":"1085","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/arxiv-2403.15810","RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":null,"ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"","JCRName":"","Score":null,"Total":0}
Anticipatory Gains and Event-Driven Losses in Blockchain-Based Fan Tokens: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup
National football teams increasingly issue tradeable blockchain-based fan
tokens to strategically enhance fan engagement. This study investigates the
impact of 2022 World Cup matches on the dynamic performance of each team's fan
token. The event study uncovers fan token returns surged six months before the
World Cup, driven by positive anticipation effects. However, intraday analysis
reveals a reversal of fan token returns consistently declining and trading
volumes rising as matches unfold. To explain findings, we uncover asymmetries
whereby defeats in high-stake matches caused a plunge in fan token returns,
compared to low-stake matches, intensifying in magnitude for knockout matches.
Contrarily, victories enhance trading volumes, reflecting increased market
activity without a corresponding positive effect on returns. We align findings
with the classic market adage "buy the rumor, sell the news," unveiling
cognitive biases and nuances in investor sentiment, cautioning the dichotomy of
pre-event optimism and subsequent performance declines.