基于区块链的球迷代币的预期收益和事件驱动损失:来自国际足联世界杯的证据

Aman Saggu, Lennart Ante, Ender Demir
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国家足球队越来越多地发行可交易的基于区块链的球迷令牌,以战略性地提高球迷参与度。本研究调查了 2022 年世界杯比赛对各队球迷代币动态表现的影响。事件研究发现,在积极预期效应的推动下,球迷代币的回报率在世界杯前六个月激增。然而,日内分析表明,随着比赛的进行,球迷代币回报率持续下降,而交易量却不断上升,这种情况发生了逆转。为了解释这些发现,我们发现了一些不对称现象,即与低赌注比赛相比,高赌注比赛中的失败会导致球迷代币收益率暴跌,淘汰赛的跌幅更大。我们将研究结果与经典的市场格言 "买谣言,卖新闻 "相结合,揭示了投资者情绪中的认知偏差和细微差别,提醒人们注意事件发生前的乐观情绪和事件发生后的业绩下滑之间的二元对立。
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Anticipatory Gains and Event-Driven Losses in Blockchain-Based Fan Tokens: Evidence from the FIFA World Cup
National football teams increasingly issue tradeable blockchain-based fan tokens to strategically enhance fan engagement. This study investigates the impact of 2022 World Cup matches on the dynamic performance of each team's fan token. The event study uncovers fan token returns surged six months before the World Cup, driven by positive anticipation effects. However, intraday analysis reveals a reversal of fan token returns consistently declining and trading volumes rising as matches unfold. To explain findings, we uncover asymmetries whereby defeats in high-stake matches caused a plunge in fan token returns, compared to low-stake matches, intensifying in magnitude for knockout matches. Contrarily, victories enhance trading volumes, reflecting increased market activity without a corresponding positive effect on returns. We align findings with the classic market adage "buy the rumor, sell the news," unveiling cognitive biases and nuances in investor sentiment, cautioning the dichotomy of pre-event optimism and subsequent performance declines.
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