Melissa C Schnure, Parastu Kasaie, David W Dowdy, Becky L Genberg, Emily A Kendall, Anthony T Fojo
{"title":"预测针对艾滋病毒的干预措施对艾滋病毒感染者年龄分布的影响:肯尼亚案例研究。","authors":"Melissa C Schnure, Parastu Kasaie, David W Dowdy, Becky L Genberg, Emily A Kendall, Anthony T Fojo","doi":"10.1097/QAD.0000000000003895","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To provide accurate forecasts of the age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) in Kenya from 2025 to 2040.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>Development of a compartmental model of HIV in Kenya, calibrated to historical estimates of HIV epidemiology.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We forecasted changes in population size and age distribution of new HIV infections and PWH under the status quo and under scale-up of HIV services.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Without scale-up, new HIV infections were forecasted to fall from 34 000 (28 000-41 000) in 2,025 to 29 000 (15 000-57 000) in 2,040; the percentage of new infections occurring among persons over 30 increased from 33% (20-50%) to 40% (24-62%). The median age of PWH increased from 39 years (38-40) in 2025 to 43 years (39-46) in 2040, and the percentage of PWH over age 50 increased from 26% (23-29%) to 34% (26-43%). Under the full intervention scenario, new infections were forecasted to fall to 6,000 (3,000-12 000) in 2,040. The percentage of new infections occurring in people over age 30 increased to 52% (34-71%) in 2,040, and there was an additional shift in the age structure of PWH [forecasted median age of 46 (43-48) and 40% (33-47%) over age 50].</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>PWH in Kenya are forecasted to age over the next 15 years; improvements to the HIV care continuum are expected to contribute to the growing proportion of older PWH.</p>","PeriodicalId":7502,"journal":{"name":"AIDS","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":3.4000,"publicationDate":"2024-07-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11211060/pdf/","citationCount":"0","resultStr":"{\"title\":\"Forecasting the effect of HIV-targeted interventions on the age distribution of people with HIV in Kenya.\",\"authors\":\"Melissa C Schnure, Parastu Kasaie, David W Dowdy, Becky L Genberg, Emily A Kendall, Anthony T Fojo\",\"doi\":\"10.1097/QAD.0000000000003895\",\"DOIUrl\":null,\"url\":null,\"abstract\":\"<p><strong>Objectives: </strong>To provide accurate forecasts of the age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) in Kenya from 2025 to 2040.</p><p><strong>Design: </strong>Development of a compartmental model of HIV in Kenya, calibrated to historical estimates of HIV epidemiology.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>We forecasted changes in population size and age distribution of new HIV infections and PWH under the status quo and under scale-up of HIV services.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Without scale-up, new HIV infections were forecasted to fall from 34 000 (28 000-41 000) in 2,025 to 29 000 (15 000-57 000) in 2,040; the percentage of new infections occurring among persons over 30 increased from 33% (20-50%) to 40% (24-62%). The median age of PWH increased from 39 years (38-40) in 2025 to 43 years (39-46) in 2040, and the percentage of PWH over age 50 increased from 26% (23-29%) to 34% (26-43%). Under the full intervention scenario, new infections were forecasted to fall to 6,000 (3,000-12 000) in 2,040. The percentage of new infections occurring in people over age 30 increased to 52% (34-71%) in 2,040, and there was an additional shift in the age structure of PWH [forecasted median age of 46 (43-48) and 40% (33-47%) over age 50].</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>PWH in Kenya are forecasted to age over the next 15 years; improvements to the HIV care continuum are expected to contribute to the growing proportion of older PWH.</p>\",\"PeriodicalId\":7502,\"journal\":{\"name\":\"AIDS\",\"volume\":null,\"pages\":null},\"PeriodicalIF\":3.4000,\"publicationDate\":\"2024-07-15\",\"publicationTypes\":\"Journal Article\",\"fieldsOfStudy\":null,\"isOpenAccess\":false,\"openAccessPdf\":\"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11211060/pdf/\",\"citationCount\":\"0\",\"resultStr\":null,\"platform\":\"Semanticscholar\",\"paperid\":null,\"PeriodicalName\":\"AIDS\",\"FirstCategoryId\":\"3\",\"ListUrlMain\":\"https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003895\",\"RegionNum\":2,\"RegionCategory\":\"医学\",\"ArticlePicture\":[],\"TitleCN\":null,\"AbstractTextCN\":null,\"PMCID\":null,\"EPubDate\":\"2024/4/9 0:00:00\",\"PubModel\":\"Epub\",\"JCR\":\"Q3\",\"JCRName\":\"IMMUNOLOGY\",\"Score\":null,\"Total\":0}","platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"AIDS","FirstCategoryId":"3","ListUrlMain":"https://doi.org/10.1097/QAD.0000000000003895","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2024/4/9 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"IMMUNOLOGY","Score":null,"Total":0}
Forecasting the effect of HIV-targeted interventions on the age distribution of people with HIV in Kenya.
Objectives: To provide accurate forecasts of the age distribution of people with HIV (PWH) in Kenya from 2025 to 2040.
Design: Development of a compartmental model of HIV in Kenya, calibrated to historical estimates of HIV epidemiology.
Methods: We forecasted changes in population size and age distribution of new HIV infections and PWH under the status quo and under scale-up of HIV services.
Results: Without scale-up, new HIV infections were forecasted to fall from 34 000 (28 000-41 000) in 2,025 to 29 000 (15 000-57 000) in 2,040; the percentage of new infections occurring among persons over 30 increased from 33% (20-50%) to 40% (24-62%). The median age of PWH increased from 39 years (38-40) in 2025 to 43 years (39-46) in 2040, and the percentage of PWH over age 50 increased from 26% (23-29%) to 34% (26-43%). Under the full intervention scenario, new infections were forecasted to fall to 6,000 (3,000-12 000) in 2,040. The percentage of new infections occurring in people over age 30 increased to 52% (34-71%) in 2,040, and there was an additional shift in the age structure of PWH [forecasted median age of 46 (43-48) and 40% (33-47%) over age 50].
Conclusion: PWH in Kenya are forecasted to age over the next 15 years; improvements to the HIV care continuum are expected to contribute to the growing proportion of older PWH.
期刊介绍:
Publishing the very latest ground breaking research on HIV and AIDS. Read by all the top clinicians and researchers, AIDS has the highest impact of all AIDS-related journals. With 18 issues per year, AIDS guarantees the authoritative presentation of significant advances. The Editors, themselves noted international experts who know the demands of your work, are committed to making AIDS the most distinguished and innovative journal in the field. Submitted articles undergo a preliminary review by the editor. Some articles may be returned to authors without further consideration. Those being considered for publication will undergo further assessment and peer-review by the editors and those invited to do so from a reviewer pool.