Prediction of tumor recurrence after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma using magnetic resonance imaging.

Objectives: To predict tumor recurrence in patients who underwent surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma using preoperative magnetic resonance (MR) imaging findings combined with clinical findings.

Methods: In this multicenter study, a total of 113 patients (mean age, 62.9 ± 9.8 years; 58 men and 55 women) with ampullary adenocarcinoma who underwent preoperative MR imaging and surgery with margin-negative resection between 2006 and 2017 were retrospectively included. The MR imaging findings were evaluated by two radiologists. Preoperative clinical findings were obtained. Cox proportional regression analyses were used to identify the independent prognostic factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS). A nomogram was created based on the multivariable analysis and was internally validated.

Results: Multivariable analysis revealed that presence of infiltrative tumor margin (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.18, p = 0.019), adjacent organ invasion (HR: 3.31, p = 0.006), adjacent vessel invasion (HR: 5.42, p = 0.041), peripancreatic lymph node enlargement (HR: 2.1, p = 0.019), and jaundice (HR: 1.93, p = 0.043) were significantly associated with worse RFS of ampullary adenocarcinoma after surgical resection. These MR imaging and clinical findings were used to construct a nomogram. On internal validation, the calibration plots showed excellent agreement between the predicted probabilities and the actual rates of tumor recurrence, with Harrell's c-index of 0.746.

Conclusions: Combination of preoperative MR imaging and clinical findings can be useful for predicting tumor recurrence after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma. Identifying these features before surgery may aid in better treatment planning and management of these patients.

Clinical relevance statement: A predictive nomogram using preoperative MR imaging and clinical findings can be useful in estimating the recurrence-free survival after surgical resection of ampullary adenocarcinoma.

Key points: • Presently, tumor size on imaging is the only non-invasive factor that correlates with recurrence-free survival from ampullary adenocarcinoma; other factors are obtained postoperatively. • Infiltrative tumor margin, adjacent organ invasion, adjacent vessel invasion, peripancreatic lymph node enlargement on MRI, and jaundice are significant predictors for recurrence. • A nomogram incorporating significant MR imaging and clinical findings showed good performance in predicting recurrence-free survival, which can help in treatment planning.