Risk prediction model for gastric cancer within 5 years in healthy Korean adults.

Background: Although endoscopy is commonly used for gastric cancer screening in South Korea, predictive models that integrate endoscopy results are scarce. We aimed to develop a 5-year gastric cancer risk prediction model using endoscopy results as a predictor.

Methods: We developed a predictive model using the cohort data of the Kangbuk Samsung Health Study from 2011 to 2019. Among the 260,407 participants aged ≥20 years who did not have any previous history of cancer, 435 cases of gastric cancer were observed. A Cox proportional hazard regression model was used to evaluate the predictors and calculate the 5-year risk of gastric cancer. Harrell's C-statistics and Nam-D'Agostino χ² test were used to measure the quality of discrimination and calibration ability, respectively.

Results: We included age, sex, smoking status, alcohol consumption, family history of cancer, and previous results for endoscopy in the risk prediction model. This model showed sufficient discrimination ability [development cohort: C-Statistics: 0.800, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.770-0.829; validation cohort: C-Statistics: 0.799, 95% CI 0.743-0.856]. It also performed well with effective calibration (development cohort: χ² = 13.65, P = 0.135; validation cohort: χ² = 15.57, P = 0.056).

Conclusion: Our prediction model, including young adults, showed good discrimination and calibration. Furthermore, this model considered a fixed time interval of 5 years to predict the risk of developing gastric cancer, considering endoscopic results. Thus, it could be clinically useful, especially for adults with endoscopic results.