时空分析:基于地理信息系统的马拉维犯罪监测和聚类应用工具

Chitani Jarves Bob Tobias, Brave Mwanza
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摘要

为了对犯罪相关数据进行监测、评估和地理分析,本研究利用地理空间技术收集了基于空间位置的犯罪数据以及《2019 年和 2020 年马拉维警方数据摘要》。从更普遍的意义上讲,利用地理信息系统技术了解马拉维犯罪的地理模式有助于确定如何制定和实施减少马拉维犯罪的重要决策。马拉维警察局建立了许多数据库管理系统,以帮助进行犯罪监测。尽管如此,它尚未将地理信息系统完全纳入所有辖区。因此,马拉维警察局提供的犯罪数据和统计报告中并不包括显示犯罪地点和犯罪热点区域的地图。有鉴于此,很多人成为了各种形式犯罪的受害者,而这些犯罪也发生在这些犯罪猖獗的地区。为了收集、跟踪和分析马拉维的犯罪数据,本研究使用了地理信息系统(GIS),特别是网络分析技术。网络分析技术通过将犯罪数据分析为由相互关联的事件和地点组成的网络,来确定犯罪热点。其基本原理是将每个犯罪事件视为网络中的一个节点,将犯罪之间的空间关系视为边。通过分析这一网络,犯罪事件之间的模式和关系得以揭示,从而确定犯罪热点。研究发现,中部地区和首都利隆圭的犯罪数量最高,其次是南部地区的布兰太尔,曼戈奇紧随其后。北部地区的姆津巴犯罪率较高。在马拉维,传统的情报和犯罪记录保存系统已无法满足当今犯罪形势的需要。人工方法既不能全天候提供准确、可靠或完整的数据,也无助于趋势预测和决策协助。它还导致生产力低下和劳动力使用效率低下。适当应用信息技术是解决这一日益严峻挑战的办法。
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Spatial and Temporal Analysis: A GIS-Based Application Tool for Crime Monitoring and Clustering in Malawi
For the purposes of monitoring, evaluating, and conducting a geographical analysis of crime-related data, the study used geospatial technology to collect crime data based on spatial location and the Malawi Police Data Digest of 2019 and 2020. In a more generic sense, knowing the geographic patterns of crime in Malawi using GIS technology can help determine how to make and implement important decisions to reduce crimes in Malawi. The Malawi Police Service has established a number of database management systems to help with crime monitoring. Notwithstanding, it has not yet fully integrated Geographic Information Systems across all jurisdictions. Maps showing crime locations and crime hotspot zones are therefore not included in the crime data and statistics report provided by the Malawi Police Service. In this light, a lot of people have become victims of various forms of crimes in areas where those crimes are also prevalent. To collect, track, and analyze crime data in Malawi for this study, Geographical Information System (GIS) particularly network analysis techniques were used. Network Analysis was used to identify crime hotspots by analyzing crime data as a network of interconnected events and locations. The rationale behind this was to treat each crime event as a node in the network and the spatial relationships between the crimes as edges. By analyzing this network, patterns and relationships between crime events were revealed, allowing for the identification of crime hotspots. The study found that Lilongwe in the central region and the capital city registered the highest number of crimes seconded by Blantyre in the southern region and followed by Mangochi. Mzimba recorded high crimes in the northern region. In Malawi, the traditional systems of intelligence and criminal record keeping have failed to satisfy the demands of today's crime situation. Manual methods neither give accurate, dependable, or complete data 24 hours a day nor do they help in trend forecasting and decision assistance. It also leads to poorer productivity and inefficient workforce use. The appropriate application of information technology is the solution to this ever-increasing challenge.
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