利用修正的 SIR 模型(包括冰山现象)研究 COVID-19 与超级扩散器的生长情况

G. S. Tuteja, Tapshi Lal
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摘要

本文从 SIR 模型的角度探讨了 COVID-19 的传播动态,尤其关注超级传播者。该模型由六个部分组成,分别代表易感者、暴露者、无症状感染者、超级传播者、无症状感染者和康复者。利用一组非线性、相互依存的微分方程,我们对模型参数进行了数值求解,以检验超级传播者对种群内感染传播的影响。我们计算了基本繁殖数(R0),并讨论了无疾病平衡的稳定性。我们的发现强调了超级传播者和无症状个体在疾病传播中的重要作用。借鉴冰山现象的流行病学概念,我们对印度的超级传播者事件及其影响提出了见解。
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A study of growth of COVID-19 with super-spreaders using the modified SIR model including iceberg phenomenon
This paper explores the dynamics of COVID-19 transmission, particularly focusing on super-spreaders, through the lens of the SIR model. The model comprises six compartments representing susceptible, exposed, symptomatic infected, super-spreader, asymptomatic infected, and recovered individuals. Utilizing a set of non-linear, interdependent differential equations, we numerically solve for model parameters to examine the influence of super-spreaders on infection spread within the population. We calculate the basic reproduction number (R0) and discuss the stability of disease-free equilibrium. Our findings underscore the significant role played by super-spreaders and asymptomatic individuals in disease dissemination. Drawing on the epidemiological concept of the iceberg phenomenon, we offer insights into super-spreader events (SSEs) in India and their ramifications.
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