气候变化及其对泰米尔纳德邦不同农业气候区孟加拉禾本科植物需水量和产量的影响

V. Guhan, S. A. Prasad, S. Easwaran, K. Annadurai, M. Marimuthu, D. Balu, S. Vigneswaran, C. N. Kumar
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摘要

背景:根据已验证的结果,孟加拉禾的 AquaCrop 模型成功地匹配了不同种植日期下报告作物数据的生物量和产量。此外,该研究还在泰米尔纳德邦的不同农业气候区进行,以评估产量和需水量的变化。方法:为了模拟泰米尔纳德邦 Dindugal 区 Guziliamparai 地块孟加拉禾对种植日期影响的实际产量,研究对 AquaCrop 模型的性能进行了参数化和验证。在 D1 - 11 月 1 日、D2 - 11 月 15 日、D3 - 12 月 1 日和 D4 - 12 月 15 日进行的四次田间试验提供了模型校准数据。结果:果实产量和生物量的 R2 值分别为 0.9 和 0.8,表明观测数据和模型模拟数据之间非常一致。果实产量和生物量的 RMSE 值分别为 0.4 和 0.2。果实产量和生物量的 NRMSE 值分别为 0.3 和 0.1。AquaCrop 模型在一定程度上高估了果实产量和生物量,因为产量和生物量的 BIAS 分别小于 0.4 和 0.2。水果产量和生物量在模拟和实际 D 水平(0.4 至 0.6)之间的一致性较差。在泰米尔纳德邦的整个 ACZ,气温上升 20℃,产量平均减少 6%,最低减少 2%,最高减少 13%。温度分别上升 3°C 和 4°C,平均减产 9% 和 19%。
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Climate Change and its Impact on Water Requirement and Productivity of Bengal Gram Over Different Agro-climatic Zones of Tamil Nadu
Background: The AquaCrop model for bengal gram successfully matches the biomass and yield of reported crop data under various planting dates, according to results that have been validated. Further this study was carried out in different agroclimatic zones of Tamil Nadu to assess variations in yield and water requirement. Methods: In order to simulate realistic yields for the Bengal gram in response to planting date impacts in the Guziliamparai Block in the Dindugal District of Tamil Nadu, the study parameterized and verified performance of the AquaCrop model. Four field trials planted in D1 - 1st November, D2 - 15th November, D3 - 1st December, and D4 - 15th December provided the model calibration data. Result: Fruit yield and biomass had R2 values of 0.9 and 0.8, respectively, indicating strong agreement between observed and model-simulated data. Fruit output and biomass were found to have RMSE values of 0.4 and 0.2, respectively. The NRMSE values for fruit yield and biomass were determined to be 0.3 and 0.1, respectively. The AquaCrop model somewhat overestimated fruit production and biomass since the BIAS was less than 0.4 and 0.2 for yield and biomass, respectively. Fruit production and biomass showed less agreement between simulated and actual D levels (0.4 to 0.6). Across Tamil Nadu's ACZ, a 20C temperature increase decreased the yield by an average of 6%, with minimums of 2% and maximums of 13%. An rise in temperature of 3°C and 4°C, respectively, decreased the yield by 9% and 19% on average.
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