是什么驱动了 DeFis 和加密货币之间的回报和波动溢出?

A. Assaf, Ender Demir, Oguz Ersan
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摘要

在本文中,我们研究了加密货币和 DeFi 代币之间的收益率和波动率关联性,并考虑了不同不确定性指数对其关联性的影响。首先,我们估计了一个 TVP-VAR 模型,以获得两个市场之间的总连接性。我们发现,加密货币的收益传递的冲击要大得多,因此是大多数 DeFis 收益变化的主要原因。然后,为了分析不确定性对总回报和波动率关联性的影响,我们使用了四个因子,即经济政策不确定性(EPU)、芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)、传染病股票市场波动率跟踪器(ID-EMV)和地缘政治风险(GPR)。我们发现,除地缘政治风险外,其他三个指标都对回报率和波动率的关联性产生了积极影响,而 GPR 则产生了消极影响。最后,我们提出了对研究人员、市场参与者和政策制定者的启示。
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What drives the return and volatility spillover between DeFis and cryptocurrencies?
In this paper, we study the return and volatility connectedness between cryptocurrencies and DeFi Tokens, considering the impact of different uncertainty indices on their connectivity. Initially, we estimate a TVP‐VAR model to obtain the total connectedness between the two markets. We find that returns on the cryptocurrencies transmit significantly larger shocks and, thus, are responsible for most variations in the majority of DeFis' returns. Then, to analyse the impact of uncertainty on total return and volatility connectedness, we use four factors, namely, Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU), The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX), Infectious Disease Equity Market Volatility Tracker (ID‐EMV) and Geopolitical Risks (GPR). We find that except for geopolitical risks, all three measures have a positive impact on return and volatility connectedness, while GPR exerts a negative impact. Finally, we provide implications for researchers, market participants and policymakers.
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