宏观经济因素对雅加达伊斯兰指数股价指数的影响分析

M. Huda, A. Suminto, Amelia Septiyani Septiyani, Muhammad Nabil Hanif Hanif
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引用次数: 0

摘要

国家经济放缓会导致受影响的汇率或汇价走弱,而印尼银行在经济下滑时的利率政策也会随之降低,从而对印尼证券交易所的股票指数产生影响。本研究旨在确定宏观经济对印尼证券交易所 IHS 的影响。采用的方法是定量研究,分析模型使用 VAR 技术。使用的数据是时间序列的二手数据。研究结果表明,ISSI 和 BI 率的影响呈正反应,而通货膨胀呈正反应。汇率变量对 JII 冲击的反应为负,直至期末。FEVD检验结果显示,对JII、通货膨胀、ISSI和BI利率的贡献最大,而对JII贡献最小的是汇率。这项研究的意义和建议是,印尼银行作为负责控制通货膨胀的机构,可以保持通货膨胀稳定,降低对美元的汇率,保持利率稳定。
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Analysis of Macroeconomi Factor Effect on the Stock Price Index in Jakarta Islamic Index
The country’s economy slowdown causes the affected exchange rate or exchange rate to weaken, and Bank Indonesia’s interest rate policy at the time of the economic downturn decreases, it has an impact on the stock index in the JII. This research aims to determine the influence of macroeconomics on the IHS in JII. The method used is quantitative research, with an analysis model using the VAR technique. The data used is secondary data of a time series. The research results show that the influence of the ISSI and BI rate responded positively, while inflation responded positively. The exchange rate variable responded negatively to JII shocks until the end of the period. The results of the FEVD test show that the largest contribution was JII, inflation, ISSI, and BI rate, and the smallest contribution to JII was the exchange rate. Implication and recommendation this research are Bank Indonesia as the institution responsible for controlling inflation, can maintain inflation stability, lower the exchange rate against the dollar and maintain interest rate stability.
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