农业危机下植物生产发展的现代趋势

IF 0.4 Q4 AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY Agricultural Science and Practice Pub Date : 2024-02-28 DOI:10.15407/agrisp10.03.016
O. Shust, O. Varchenko, D. Krysanov, O. O. Dragan, K. Tkachenko, O. Varchenko
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The cyclic character of the development in the agrarian sector and its impact on plant produc- tion were studied, and the results demonstrated that agrarian crises are an imminent stage of this process, and their “trough” is a starting point to launch a new cycle. It was found that the prolonged nature of agrarian crises inhibited the restoration cycle so much that the temporal breaks with the cycles of previous periods decreased considerably, and the periods of their complete revolution shortened due to which the scientists distinguish just two phases of crises now instead of traditional four phases: recession and uprising. It was determined that during the transition to new forms of management, there was an obvious destruction of the material resources of plant production with the refusal to keep to the crop rotation order. Still, the redistribution of the land and their division into shares stimulated the organization of modern agrarian enterprises yet delayed the agrarian and land reforms considerably. Due to this factor and other reasons, agricultural plant production at the “trough” of the transformational crisis decreased twice. The analysis demonstrated that the restoration of plant production occurred 12 years after the institutional crisis, followed by its registered rise until the moment of the Russian aggression – up to 156 %, and the development of the industry was closely related to the cyclic character of the functioning in the agrarian sector in general. Due to military actions, the manufacture of plant products has been dropping rapidly for the past two years. It was found that the results of the basic year were achieved differently in terms of different crops: the results for grains, grain legumes, and technical crops were achieved only in 2008; for vegetables and potatoes – in 2000, the yield of sunflower constantly increased, even despite agrarian crises; the performance of sugar beet decreased more than four times in 2021; the results for fruit and berries did not match those of 1990. The main directions of restoring the agrarian resource potential and renewing the manufacture of plant products in the postwar period were suggested. Conclusions. Modern processes of agricul- tural production are subject to the cyclic character of development, the trends of which are clearly copied in the plant production development. It was proven that agriculture reached the level of 1990 by the production volumes only in 2019, and the specificity of its development lies in the fact that after a short descending trend, there was a transition to the ascending trend, improving the situation considerably, but it was often broken by the lower part (“trough”) of agrarian crises and local drops (every other year). It was found that the restoration of plant production after a deep institutional crisis was registered in 2011, and in the subsequent years, there was a clear copying of the tendencies in the development of agrarian crises, but in terms of different crops, the rises from the “trough” of the transformational crisis took place in different time periods. The evaluations confirm that in plant production, the “trough” of each subsequent agrarian crisis was higher than that of the previous one, but it was followed by the ascending trend of the production, the exception being the peak of 2021, followed by the dramatic drop, caused by the Russian aggression. It was empirically proven that the cyclicity in the manifestation of the agrarian crises is characterized by the follow- ing time periods: from 1990 to 1999 – 10 years, from 2000 to 2010 – 10 years, and there were two crises, five years long each, during the subsequent 10-year-long period. It was rationalized that the main factors of shorter time periods in the crisis manifestation are as follows: global climate change, smart technologies, and a failure to comply with scientifically grounded requirements of crop rotations, which conditioned the domination of export-oriented crops in the structure of areas under crop, etc. The priorities of the postwar restoration of the plant production industry were substantiated; among these, the time-urgent investment into the de-mining processes in agricultural fields and the quality restoration of the latter was highlighted, including the distribution of sustainable production practices, the introduction of moisture- and resource-efficient technologies, precision agriculture, smart-technologies, the measures aimed at minimizing the losses of agricultural products in the process of producing, storing the products and managing food wastes. 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The analysis demonstrated that the restoration of plant production occurred 12 years after the institutional crisis, followed by its registered rise until the moment of the Russian aggression – up to 156 %, and the development of the industry was closely related to the cyclic character of the functioning in the agrarian sector in general. Due to military actions, the manufacture of plant products has been dropping rapidly for the past two years. It was found that the results of the basic year were achieved differently in terms of different crops: the results for grains, grain legumes, and technical crops were achieved only in 2008; for vegetables and potatoes – in 2000, the yield of sunflower constantly increased, even despite agrarian crises; the performance of sugar beet decreased more than four times in 2021; the results for fruit and berries did not match those of 1990. The main directions of restoring the agrarian resource potential and renewing the manufacture of plant products in the postwar period were suggested. Conclusions. Modern processes of agricul- tural production are subject to the cyclic character of development, the trends of which are clearly copied in the plant production development. It was proven that agriculture reached the level of 1990 by the production volumes only in 2019, and the specificity of its development lies in the fact that after a short descending trend, there was a transition to the ascending trend, improving the situation considerably, but it was often broken by the lower part (“trough”) of agrarian crises and local drops (every other year). It was found that the restoration of plant production after a deep institutional crisis was registered in 2011, and in the subsequent years, there was a clear copying of the tendencies in the development of agrarian crises, but in terms of different crops, the rises from the “trough” of the transformational crisis took place in different time periods. The evaluations confirm that in plant production, the “trough” of each subsequent agrarian crisis was higher than that of the previous one, but it was followed by the ascending trend of the production, the exception being the peak of 2021, followed by the dramatic drop, caused by the Russian aggression. It was empirically proven that the cyclicity in the manifestation of the agrarian crises is characterized by the follow- ing time periods: from 1990 to 1999 – 10 years, from 2000 to 2010 – 10 years, and there were two crises, five years long each, during the subsequent 10-year-long period. 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引用次数: 0

摘要

目的确定农业部门周期性发展的后果,评估转型和农业危机及危机间歇期导致的植物生产部门结构和绩效的变化,揭示战后农业部门反危机监管的特殊性。研究方法。采用常用的科学方法,包括历史和逻辑分析法、辩证和系统分析法、理论概括法、分析和综合法、变异动态法、比较法、分组法、索引法和表格法。研究结果研究了农业部门发展的周期性特征及其对植物生产的影响,结果表明,农业危机是这一过程的临近阶段,其 "低谷 "是启动新周期的起点。研究发现,农业危机的长期性极大地抑制了恢复周期,以至于与以往时期周期的时间断裂大大减少,其完全革命的时间缩短,因此科学家们将危机从传统的四个阶段(衰退和起义)区分为现在的两个阶段。据确定,在向新的管理形式过渡期间,由于拒绝遵守轮作顺序,植物生产的物质资源遭到了明显的破坏。尽管如此,土地的重新分配和股份化还是促进了现代农业企业的组织,但却大大推迟了土地改革。由于这一因素和其他原因,处于转型危机 "低谷 "的农业植物产量下降了两倍。分析表明,植物生产的恢复发生在体制危机 12 年后,随后一直到俄罗斯入侵前都在持续上升,升幅高达 156%,该行业的发展与整个农业部门运作的周期性密切相关。由于军事行动,植物产品的生产在过去两年中急剧下降。研究发现,不同作物的基本年度成果各不相同:谷物、谷物豆类和技术作物的成果仅在 2008 年实现;蔬菜和马铃薯--在 2000 年,向日葵的产量不断增加,尽管出现了农业危机;甜菜的表现在 2021 年下降了四倍多;水果和浆果的成果与 1990 年的成果不符。提出了战后恢复农业资源潜力和振兴植物产品生产的主要方向。结论现代农业生产过程受制于发展的周期性特征,其趋势明显反映在植物生产发展中。事实证明,农业产量到 2019 年才达到 1990 年的水平,其发展的特殊性在于,在经历了短暂的下降趋势后,又过渡到了上升趋势,情况得到了很大改善,但这一趋势经常被农业危机的低谷("低谷")和局部下降(每隔一年)所打破。研究发现,植物生产在经历了严重的制度危机后于 2011 年得到恢复,在随后的几年中,农业危机发展的趋势得到了明显的复制,但就不同作物而言,从转型危机的 "低谷 "回升发生在不同的时间段。评估结果证实,在植物生产方面,每一次农业危机的 "低谷 "都高于前一次,但随后的产量都呈上升趋势,只有 2021 年是个例外,随后由于俄罗斯的侵略,产量急剧下降。经验证明,农业危机的周期性表现为以下时间段:1990 年至 1999 年--10 年,2000 年至 2010 年--10 年,在随后的 10 年中出现了两次危机,每次长达 5 年。有理由认为,危机在较短时间内显现的主要因素如下:全球气候变化、智能技术、未能遵守科学的轮作要求,这使得出口导向型作物在作物面积结构中占主导地位等。
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Modern trends in the development of plant production under agrarian crises
Aim. To determine the consequences of the cyclic development in the agrarian sector and evaluate the shifts in the structure and the performance of plant production branches due to the course of the transformational and agrarian crises and inter-crisis periods, to disclose the specificities of anti-crisis regulation in the agrarian sector in the postwar time. Methods. Common scientific methods were applied, including historical and logical, dialectic and systemic analysis, theoretical generalization, analysis and synthesis, variation dynamics, comparison, grouping, indexing, and table methods. Results. The cyclic character of the development in the agrarian sector and its impact on plant produc- tion were studied, and the results demonstrated that agrarian crises are an imminent stage of this process, and their “trough” is a starting point to launch a new cycle. It was found that the prolonged nature of agrarian crises inhibited the restoration cycle so much that the temporal breaks with the cycles of previous periods decreased considerably, and the periods of their complete revolution shortened due to which the scientists distinguish just two phases of crises now instead of traditional four phases: recession and uprising. It was determined that during the transition to new forms of management, there was an obvious destruction of the material resources of plant production with the refusal to keep to the crop rotation order. Still, the redistribution of the land and their division into shares stimulated the organization of modern agrarian enterprises yet delayed the agrarian and land reforms considerably. Due to this factor and other reasons, agricultural plant production at the “trough” of the transformational crisis decreased twice. The analysis demonstrated that the restoration of plant production occurred 12 years after the institutional crisis, followed by its registered rise until the moment of the Russian aggression – up to 156 %, and the development of the industry was closely related to the cyclic character of the functioning in the agrarian sector in general. Due to military actions, the manufacture of plant products has been dropping rapidly for the past two years. It was found that the results of the basic year were achieved differently in terms of different crops: the results for grains, grain legumes, and technical crops were achieved only in 2008; for vegetables and potatoes – in 2000, the yield of sunflower constantly increased, even despite agrarian crises; the performance of sugar beet decreased more than four times in 2021; the results for fruit and berries did not match those of 1990. The main directions of restoring the agrarian resource potential and renewing the manufacture of plant products in the postwar period were suggested. Conclusions. Modern processes of agricul- tural production are subject to the cyclic character of development, the trends of which are clearly copied in the plant production development. It was proven that agriculture reached the level of 1990 by the production volumes only in 2019, and the specificity of its development lies in the fact that after a short descending trend, there was a transition to the ascending trend, improving the situation considerably, but it was often broken by the lower part (“trough”) of agrarian crises and local drops (every other year). It was found that the restoration of plant production after a deep institutional crisis was registered in 2011, and in the subsequent years, there was a clear copying of the tendencies in the development of agrarian crises, but in terms of different crops, the rises from the “trough” of the transformational crisis took place in different time periods. The evaluations confirm that in plant production, the “trough” of each subsequent agrarian crisis was higher than that of the previous one, but it was followed by the ascending trend of the production, the exception being the peak of 2021, followed by the dramatic drop, caused by the Russian aggression. It was empirically proven that the cyclicity in the manifestation of the agrarian crises is characterized by the follow- ing time periods: from 1990 to 1999 – 10 years, from 2000 to 2010 – 10 years, and there were two crises, five years long each, during the subsequent 10-year-long period. It was rationalized that the main factors of shorter time periods in the crisis manifestation are as follows: global climate change, smart technologies, and a failure to comply with scientifically grounded requirements of crop rotations, which conditioned the domination of export-oriented crops in the structure of areas under crop, etc. The priorities of the postwar restoration of the plant production industry were substantiated; among these, the time-urgent investment into the de-mining processes in agricultural fields and the quality restoration of the latter was highlighted, including the distribution of sustainable production practices, the introduction of moisture- and resource-efficient technologies, precision agriculture, smart-technologies, the measures aimed at minimizing the losses of agricultural products in the process of producing, storing the products and managing food wastes. There is a need to establish a system of reacting to the manifestations of crisis phenomena, which should be based on analytical evaluations and scientifically grounded predicted scenarios.
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Agricultural Science and Practice
Agricultural Science and Practice AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY-
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