气候变化对伊拉克上扎卜盆地干旱的影响:案例研究

Q3 Environmental Science Tikrit Journal of Engineering Sciences Pub Date : 2024-02-22 DOI:10.25130/tjes.31.1.14
Doaa R. Mohammed, Ruqayah K. Mohammed
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引用次数: 0

摘要

伊拉克属于半干旱和沙漠气候。此外,据预测,伊拉克更容易受到全球变暖的影响。在本研究中,使用 LARS-WG 6.0(即随机天气生成器)模拟了位于伊拉克北部、被视为干旱和半干旱气候条件范例的上扎布盆地过去和未来的每日气候数据。该模型还估算了日降雨量和温度。采用 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 主要排放情景,利用 MIROC5、CanESM2、HadGEM2-ES、ESM1-M 和 CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 等大气环流模式(GCM)估算了本世纪的未来气候。考虑到未来气候预估存在很大的不确定性,因此进行了估算。该模型利用三十年的历史数据构建,并利用伊拉克北部上扎卜盆地(1990-2021 年)的气候数据进行了验证。数据显示,到 21 世纪末,在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 条件下,相应上游和下游子流域的月平均最高气温将分别下降 2.15-6.20 ℃ 和 1.81-6.10 ℃。所有 GCM 的降水预测都呈现出不同的模式。一些模式(如 CanESM2)预计降水量会增加,而另一些模式(如 MIROC5)则预测未来降水量不会发生变化或呈下降趋势,这说明仅使用一种模式时,降水量预测存在很大的不确定性。此外,在 1999-2000 年和 2007-2008 年干旱期间,下游子流域遭受的影响最大,平均 RDIst 值分别为-1.97 和-1.64。然而,上游子流域在 1999-2000 年和 2007-2008 年遭受了中度至严重干旱,平均 RDIst 值分别为-0.81 和-1.84。研究地点的可用水量将受到降雨量和温度变化的显著影响。
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Climate Change’s Impacts on Drought in Upper Zab Basin, Iraq: A Case Study
Iraq has a semiarid and desert climate. Also, it is predicted to be more susceptible to global warming effects. In the present study, daily climatic data from the past and projected future of the Upper Zab Basin, located in northern Iraq and considered an example of arid and semiarid climate conditions, were simulated using LARS-WG 6.0, i.e., a stochastic weather generator. The model also estimated daily rainfall and temperature. Using the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 main emission scenarios, the future climate throughout the current century was estimated utilizing the MIROC5, CanESM2, HadGEM2-ES, ESM1-M, and CSIRO-Mk3.6.0 general circulation models (GCMs). This estimation was performed considering the significant uncertainty of future climate estimates. The model, constructed using thirty years' worth of historical data, was validated using climate data from the Upper Zab Basin in northern Iraq (1990–2021). According to the data, the average monthly maximum temperature will decline by 2.15–6.20 °C under RCP4.5 and 1.81–6.10 °C under RCP8.5 by the end of the twenty-first era for the corresponding upstream and downstream sub-basins. Precipitation projections from all GCMs showed varying patterns. Given that some models, like CanESM2, expected a rise in precipitation, while others, like MIROC5, forecasted a future with no change in precipitation or a falling trend, which illustrates the significant level of uncertainty in precipitation forecast when only one model was utilized. Also, the downstream sub-basin suffered the most during the 1999–2000 and 2007–2008 droughts, with average RDIst values of -1.97 and -1.64, respectively. However, the upstream sub-basin had moderate to severe droughts in 1999–2000 and 2007–2008, with average RDIst values of -0.81 and -1.84, respectively. The water available in the research location will be significantly impacted by variations in rainfall and temperature.
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0.00%
发文量
56
审稿时长
8 weeks
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