生产力、腐败和增长对债务的影响:面板数据分析的证据

Vikniswari Vija Kumaran, Y. Rajamoorthy
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摘要

在一些国家,几年前开始的经济不确定性已经显现出其负面影响,而 COVID-19 危机则加剧了这种状况。由于资源和财政空间有限,许多国家在为其社会和经济公共医疗提供资金方面举步维艰。为了挽救本国经济,这促使他们债台高筑。本研究旨在探讨政府债务对生产率、GDP 增长、税收和腐败的影响。本研究采用面板数据分析,根据 2008 年西欧国家严重的次贷危机和 2009 年的主权债务,找出影响 16 个西欧国家政府债务的重要因素。研究结果表明,政府债务会影响生产力、GDP 增长和腐败。因此,在处理政府债务问题时,有效控制生产力至关重要。为提高一个部门的收入和竞争力而开发世界级人力资本、配备先进技能或进行人才管理的努力,应与高效和有效的公共支出保持一致。必须对公共项目的可行性、经济和社会回报进行全面评估和监督。因此,本研究认为,为了控制国家债务,需要对国家各部门进行深刻而全面的改革,特别是通过生产力、增长和腐败。
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IMPACT OF PRODUCTIVITY, CORRUPTION, AND GROWTH ON DEBT: EVIDENCE FROM PANEL DATA ANALYSIS
In a number of nations, the economic uncertainty that began several years ago has manifested its negative effects, and the COVID-19 crisis has exacerbated the situation. Many nations struggle to finance their social and economic public healthcare due to limited resources and fiscal space. In order to save their economies, this has pushed them towards high levels of debt. This study’s objective is to examine the effect of government debt on productivity, GDP growth, tax revenue, and corruption. Panel data analysis was used to identify the significant factors that affect government debt in 16 Western European countries based on their severe subprime crisis in 2008 and sovereign debt in 2009, which fall between the timeframes of this study. The findings revealed that government debt impacts productivity, GDP growth, and corruption. As a result, effective productivity control is critical when dealing with government debt. Efforts to develop world-class human capital, equipped with sophisticated skills or talent management, in order to increase a sector’s income and competitiveness should be aligned with efficient and effective public spending. Public projects must be thoroughly evaluated and monitored in terms of feasibility, economic and social returns. As a consequence, this study suggests that a profound and comprehensive reformation across various sectors in the country is required, particularly through productivity, growth, and corruption, in order to control a country’s debt. 
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