The coordinated evolution of ecological environment, public service, and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt, using the Dual-Carbon Targets

Carbon peak and carbon neutrality (dual-carbon) are important targets for the international response to climate change. The Silk Road Economic Belt is a strategic resource region and is important for future ecological environment and tourism development. Based on the “dual-carbon” targets, the Single index quantification, Multiple index synthesis, and Poly-criteria integration evaluation model were used in this study to measure the coordinated development index of the ecological environment, public service, and tourism economy along the Silk Road Economic Belt and to analyze its spatial and temporal evolution. Further, it explores the dynamic evolution and development trend of the three systems using the Kernel Density and Grey Markov Prediction Model. The results show that the coordinated development index along this region needs to be improved during the study period. Furthermore, the coordinated development index of the Southwest region is relatively higher than that of the Northwest region. From the development trend of the three systems, all of them develop in a stable manner; however, the tourism economy system is easily affected by external disturbances. The coordinated development index of the three systems changes dynamically and tends to be in a good state of coordination. There is a certain spatial and temporal heterogeneity. The gravity center of the coordinated development index has been in the Southwest region. During the forecast period, the coordinated development index along this region will improve significantly, while insufficient and unbalanced development will continue.