Independent and joint associations of estimated cardiorespiratory fitness and its dynamic changes and obesity with the risk of hypertension: A prospective cohort

Our aim was to examine the independent and joint associations of estimated cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) and its changes and obesity with risk of hypertension in a rural Chinese population. A prospective cohort including 9848 adults without hypertension at baseline was enrolled. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were estimated by logistic regression models. Restricted cubic splines were used to model the dose–response relationship. During 6 years follow-up, 2,019 individuals developed hypertension. A negative association between estimated CRF and hypertension incidence was observed, with the risk being 0.87 (0.84–0.90) per MET increment. For estimated CRF change, the risks of hypertension were 1.50 (1.27–1.77) and 0.75 (0.59–0.97) for decreasers and increasers, respectively, compared to maintainers. Joint analyses showed individuals in the overweight/obesity-fourth quartile of estimated CRF had a 2.08 times higher risk of hypertension than those in the normal weight-first quartile (Pinteraction < 0.05). Those overweight/obesity-decreasers had the highest risk (OR: 2.19, 95%CI: 1.71–2.81; Pinteraction < 0.05) compared to the normal-maintainers. Similar results for abdominal obesity were also observed. Estimated CRF and its dynamic changes showed a negative association with hypertension incidence in the rural Chinese population.