Response of Potato Growth and Yield to Drought Scenarios Based on APSIM-Potato in the Single-Cropping Region in Northern China

As a result of climate warming, the frequency and intensity of droughts have increased. Potato planting and production activities in the single-cropping region in Northern China are affected by drought, which poses a threat to regional food security. Based on this, this paper took potatoes in the single-cropping region in Northern China as the research object and combined the Agricultural Production Systems Simulation (APSIM) model and mathematical statistics methods to complete the evaluation of the applicability of the APSIM model in the study area. The response of potato growth and yield to different drought scenarios was simulated and analysed in the single-cropping region in Northern China. The results showed that the validated APSIM-Potato was highly applicable to the single-cropping region in Northern China. The root mean square error (RMSE) of the simulated phenology was within 1.9 ~ 2.6 days. The normalized root mean square errors (NRMSEs) of the simulated LAI, above-ground biomass, and yield were all below 15%. Potato yield decreased with an increase in drought stress intensity and duration. In the simulation of water stress at a single developmental stage, the yield of potatoes during the budding-flowering stage was affected the most by water stress, with a yield reduction of between 4.8 and 35.8% compared to the control group (CG). High-intensity water stress during the entire growth period reduced the final potato yield by 28.9 to 60.9% compared to CG. Finally, through the simulation experiment of potato water control, it was found that under the same water control condition, the potato yield reduction rate in the northwestern region was greater than that in the southeastern region.