Low juvenile survival threatens the Black Stork Ciconia nigra in northern Europe

Summary Detecting factors causing the decline of wildlife populations provides essential knowledge for their effective conservation. Populations of Black Stork Ciconia nigra are decreasing in northern Europe; however, there are no detailed analyses of its survival, which frequently is a key demographic parameter affecting population dynamics in long-lived species. We used long-term data from re-sighted colour-ringed birds and satellite-tracked birds to estimate age- and sex-specific survival in a rapidly declining Black Stork population in the Baltic region at the northern end of the European range. Apparent survival (0.89) among colour-ringed birds older than one year was not significantly different from the previously reported estimates in Central Europe and the estimated real survival of GPS-tracked birds (0.77). However, the apparent survival of first-year (1y) birds was only 0.04, which is remarkably lower than earlier estimates in Central Europe. The real survival of GPS-tracked 1y birds was somewhat higher (0.11), but still much lower than estimates in other long-lived species. Apparent survival was three times lower in 1y females (0.013) than 1y males (0.045); this could be explained in part by a higher mean natal dispersal of females (189.1 km), compared with that of males (72.0 km), as well as by sex-specific mortality due to poor foraging conditions. There were no significant differences in apparent survival between the male and female storks older than one year. To better address the population decline, further research is needed to determine the factors causing low survival in young Black Storks, including the roles of food availability and climate change.