加纳外债的驱动因素

Lord Mensah, Felix Kwasi Arku
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引用次数: 0

摘要

本研究采用自回归分布滞后模型(ARDL)和误差修正模型(ECM),利用 1990 年至 2019 年的时间序列数据,建立因变量(外债)与自变量(偿债率、汇率、国内生产总值、政府支出、进口和贸易开放度)之间的短期和长期关系。研究结果表明,从长期来看,偿债率、国内生产总值、政府支出和贸易开放度与外债存在显著的正相关关系,而进口和汇率与外债存在负相关关系。在短期内,偿债率、进口、汇率和贸易开放度与外债呈显著的正相关关系,而国内生产总值与外债呈负相关关系。这些研究结果表明,政策制定者在寻求减少国家面临的债务威胁时,应将重点放在优先考虑和削减开支上。由于现有偿债能力会影响债务存量,因此建议政府减少借贷,以避免陷入债务陷阱。还必须鼓励本国减少进口的政策。随着这些外债驱动因素得到迎头痛击,加纳就能正确定位,降低公共债务水平,进而获得经济增长的收益。 原创性/价值 本研究为公共债务文献增添了新的内容,特别是针对加纳背景下外债的特殊决定因素。
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The drivers of external debt in Ghana

Purpose

This paper aims to examine the factors that contribute to the external debt growth in Ghana.

Design/methodology/approach

The study adopts the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model and the error correction model (ECM) to establish the short-run and long-run relationships between the dependent variable (external debt) and the independent variables (debt service, exchange rate, gross domestic product, government expenditure, import and trade openness), using a time series data spanning from 1990 to 2019.

Findings

The results indicate that debt service, GDP, government expenditure and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while import and exchange rates have a negative relationship with external debt in the long run. In the short run, debt service, import, exchange rate and trade openness have a positive and significant relationship with external debt, while GDP has a negative relationship with external debt.

Practical implications

The study found that variables such as government expenditure, debt service and import contribute significantly to the nation’s external debt stock. These findings suggest that policymakers should focus on prioritising and cutting down expenditure in their quest to curtail the debt menace facing the nation. Since existing debt service has the tendency of influencing debt stock, it is recommended that government should reduce borrowing in order avoid debt trap. Home-grown policies to reduce imports must also be encouraged. As these drivers of external debt are tackled head-on, Ghana can be rightly positioned to record lower levels of public debt and subsequently reap the benefits of economic growth.

Originality/value

The study adds to the public debt literature, specifically addressing the idiosyncratic determinants of external debt within the Ghanaian context.

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来源期刊
CiteScore
3.20
自引率
7.70%
发文量
41
期刊介绍: African Journal of Economic and Management Studies (AJEMS) advances both theoretical and empirical research, informs policies and practices, and improves understanding of how economic and business decisions shape the lives of Africans. AJEMS is a multidisciplinary journal and welcomes papers from all the major disciplines in economics, business and management studies.
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