过去 2000 年维苏威火山爆发造成的拉哈尔事件--第 3 部分:坎帕尼亚平原的危害评估

IF 3.2 2区 地球科学 Q1 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS Solid Earth Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI:10.5194/se-15-459-2024
Laura Sandri, Mattia de' Michieli Vitturi, Antonio Costa, Mauro Antonio Di Vito, Ilaria Rucco, Domenico Maria Doronzo, Marina Bisson, Roberto Gianardi, Sandro de Vita, Roberto Sulpizio
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引用次数: 0

摘要

摘要在本研究中,我们提出了一种新颖的拉哈尔火山灾害概率评估(PVHA)通用方法。我们运用该方法对坎帕尼亚平原(意大利南部)进行了概率评估,重点是来自索马-维苏威火山参照规模喷发的同步喷发泻湖。我们利用了与目标区域火山碎屑流沉积物有关的新实地数据(Di Vito 等人,2024b)以及最近对喇哈建模的改进(de' Michieli Vitturi 等人,2024)。前者可以为与气流初始条件相关的参数定义适当的概率密度函数,后者可以加快模型运行的计算速度。这样,我们就能通过对输入模型参数进行连贯取样并执行大量模拟,来探索初始流条件的不确定性对目标区域内拉哈入侵的影响。我们还通过对威胁坎帕尼亚平原的 11 个不同集水区进行分析,考虑到了拉哈尔生成位置的不确定性。通过对模拟输出进行后处理,我们绘制出了坎帕尼亚平原网格点上最大流量厚度的危险曲线。通过在选定的临界值上切割危险曲线,我们绘制出了一组最大水流厚度的危险图和概率图。我们还制作了同时超过水流厚度和动压两对临界值的危险面和概率图。后一种危险产品一方面是针对拉哈斯的 PVHA 新产品,另一方面也是一种有用的影响评估手段,它为同时具有相关流厚度和较大动压的拉哈斯的发生分配了概率。
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Lahar events in the last 2000 years from Vesuvius eruptions – Part 3: Hazard assessment over the Campanian Plain
Abstract. In this study we present a novel general methodology for probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment (PVHA) for lahars. We apply the methodology to perform a probabilistic assessment in the Campanian Plain (southern Italy), focusing on syn-eruptive lahars from a reference size eruption from Somma–Vesuvius. We take advantage of new field data relative to volcaniclastic flow deposits in the target region (Di Vito et al., 2024b) and recent improvements in modelling lahars (de' Michieli Vitturi et al., 2024). The former allowed defining proper probability density functions for the parameters related to the flow initial conditions, and the latter allowed computationally faster model runs. In this way, we are able to explore the effects of uncertainty in the initial flow conditions on the invasion of lahars in the target area by sampling coherent sets of values for the input model parameters and performing a large number of simulations. We also account for the uncertainty in the position of lahar generation by running the analysis on 11 different catchments threatening the Campanian Plain. The post-processing of the simulation outputs led to the production of hazard curves for the maximum flow thickness reached on a grid of points covering the Campanian Plain. By cutting the hazard curves at selected threshold values, we produce a portfolio of hazard maps and probability maps for the maximum flow thickness. We also produce hazard surface and probability maps for the simultaneous exceeding of pairs of thresholds in flow thickness and dynamic pressure. The latter hazard products represent, on one hand, a novel product in PVHA for lahars and, on the other hand, a useful means of impact assessment by assigning a probability to the occurrence of lahars that simultaneously have a relevant flow thickness and large dynamic pressure.
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来源期刊
Solid Earth
Solid Earth GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS-
CiteScore
6.90
自引率
8.80%
发文量
78
审稿时长
4.5 months
期刊介绍: Solid Earth (SE) is a not-for-profit journal that publishes multidisciplinary research on the composition, structure, dynamics of the Earth from the surface to the deep interior at all spatial and temporal scales. The journal invites contributions encompassing observational, experimental, and theoretical investigations in the form of short communications, research articles, method articles, review articles, and discussion and commentaries on all aspects of the solid Earth (for details see manuscript types). Being interdisciplinary in scope, SE covers the following disciplines: geochemistry, mineralogy, petrology, volcanology; geodesy and gravity; geodynamics: numerical and analogue modeling of geoprocesses; geoelectrics and electromagnetics; geomagnetism; geomorphology, morphotectonics, and paleoseismology; rock physics; seismics and seismology; critical zone science (Earth''s permeable near-surface layer); stratigraphy, sedimentology, and palaeontology; rock deformation, structural geology, and tectonics.
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