伊朗 1981-2010 年和 1991-2020 年期间的气候标准模式:降水和气温

IF 1.9 4区 地球科学 Q3 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Pub Date : 2024-04-03 DOI:10.1007/s00703-024-01013-3
Zohreh Javanshiri, Mohsen Rahmdel
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引用次数: 0

摘要

气候常模的主要功能有两个方面。它们为评估最近或正在进行的观测提供了一个参考点,并构成了依赖于异常现象的各种气候数据集的基础。此外,它们还经常被用来预测人们在特定地区可能遇到的情况。世界气象组织(WMO)建议每十年定期审查气候常模,以跟上不断变化的气候。大气科学和气象研究中心(ASMERC)自豪地发布了 1981-2010 年和 1991-2020 年期间的 "伊朗气候正常值",其中包括一套基于温度、降水、海平面气压、蒸汽压、站平气压、积雪深度、风速、能见度、土壤温度、相对湿度、露点和云量测量的月度和年度统计数据。本研究记录了用于质量控制、日观测数据同质化和正常值计算的程序。对于每个站点和每个参数,都报告了因误差和均匀性评估而导致的异常值结果。在所有参数中,土壤温度的误差百分比最高。不过,这并不一定意味着土壤温度的测量误差最大;这可能是由于该参数的误差比较容易发现。在 143 个站点中,有 56 个站点在某一特定时间点记录了两个或两个以上参数的断点。根据对气温和降水参数的分析,(a) 新常态下的平均气温、最高气温和最低气温分别比 1981-2010 年期间高 0.47、0.5 和 0.6 °C;(b) 正常年降水量在 1991-2020 年期间比 1981-2010 年期间平均增加了 5.4 毫米。(b) 与 1981-2010 年相比,1991-2020 年的正常年降水量平均增加了 5.4 毫米;(c) 比较这两个时期,伊朗不同地区和不同月份的降水量正常值变化各不相同,而除四个站点(戈尔甘、克尔曼、设拉子、班达尔-伦盖)外,伊朗各地所有站点的气温正常值均有所上升;(d) 月降水量的第四个五分位数的变化大于平均值,最低气温的变化高于最高气温和平均气温;以及 (e) 总体而言,后期伊朗全国气候变暖,扎格罗斯山脉和里海沿岸西部较湿润,伊朗东部、中部和西部较干燥。
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Climatological standard normals of IRAN, for the period 1981–2010 and 1991–2020: precipitation and temperature

The main functions of climate normals are twofold. They offer a reference point for evaluating recent or ongoing observations and form the basis for various climate datasets that rely on anomalies. Additionally, they are frequently employed to predict the probable conditions that one might encounter in a specific area. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) advises regularly reviewing climate normals every decade to keep up with the evolving climate. Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC) is proud to release “Iran Climate Normals” for the periods of 1981–2010 and 1991–2020 including a suite of monthly and annual statistics that are based on temperature, precipitation, sea-level pressure, vapor pressure, station-level pressure, snow-depth, wind speed, visibility, soil temperature, relative humidity, dew point, and cloud amount measurements. This study documents the procedures used for quality control, homogenization of daily observations, and calculation of normal values. For each station and each parameter, the results of the outliers due to the error and the homogeneity assessment are reported. Out of all the parameters, the soil temperature has the highest error percentage. However, this does not necessarily imply that it has the most measurement errors; it could be due to the ease of detecting errors for this specific parameter. Of the 143 stations, 56 had a breakpoint recorded in two parameters or more at a specific point in time. According to the analysis of the temperature and precipitation parameters, (a) the new normal of mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures are 0.47, 0.5, and 0.6 °C above the 1981–2010 period; (b) the normal annual precipitation has increased by an average of 5.4 mm in 1991–2020 compared to 1981–2010; (c) comparing the two periods, the changes in precipitation normals vary in different parts of Iran and different months, while the temperature normals increase in all stations across Iran except for four stations (Gorgan, Kerman, Shiraz, Bandar-e Lengeh); (d) changes in the fourth quintile of monthly precipitation are more than average, and minimum temperature changes are higher than maximum and mean temperatures; and (e) generally, the latter period is characterized by a warmer climate almost across Iran, wetter conditions over the Zagros mountain range and the western part of the Caspian Sea coasts, and drier conditions over the east, center, and west of Iran.

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来源期刊
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics 地学-气象与大气科学
CiteScore
4.00
自引率
5.00%
发文量
87
审稿时长
6-12 weeks
期刊介绍: Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics accepts original research papers for publication following the recommendations of a review panel. The emphasis lies with the following topic areas: - atmospheric dynamics and general circulation; - synoptic meteorology; - weather systems in specific regions, such as the tropics, the polar caps, the oceans; - atmospheric energetics; - numerical modeling and forecasting; - physical and chemical processes in the atmosphere, including radiation, optical effects, electricity, and atmospheric turbulence and transport processes; - mathematical and statistical techniques applied to meteorological data sets Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics discusses physical and chemical processes - in both clear and cloudy atmospheres - including radiation, optical and electrical effects, precipitation and cloud microphysics.
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