Coordinated development of island ecotourism: A comprehensive evaluation of Amami-Oshima Island

Island tourism has garnered growing attention especially with the rapid expansion of ecotourism in island destinations. While past research has explored the integrated development of island tourism, environment, and economy, there exists a demand for a more comprehensive exploration that incorporates social aspects. This study aimed to establish a comprehensive evaluation index system for island ecotourism using Amami-Oshima Island as an example. It uses four tourism subtypes, including environment, economic, social, and other-sector tourism, within the framework for island ecotourism. We employed a Coupling Coordination Degree Model and a Grey Verhulst model, utilizing data from Amami-Oshima Island from 2010 to 2021 as a basis for quantitative analysis of the current status of island ecotourism coupling coordination development and for making predictions. The research outcomes reveal the following: (1) Between 2010 and 2021, Amami-Oshima Island exhibited an overall upward trajectory in the comprehensive development of ecotourism. The environment-tourism subsystem demonstrated robust performance, the social-tourism subsystem displayed fluctuating growth, and the economic and the other-sector tourism dimensions generally progressed in tandem. (2) The coupling degree and coordination level of Amami-Oshima Island ecotourism showed an overall upward trend, with coordination evolving from a state of minimal coordination to an intermediate level. However, opportunities remain to enhance high-quality coordination through mutual influences and interdependencies. (3) Predictions indicate a slight increase in ecotourism coupling coordination on Amami-Oshima Island over the next nine years (2022–2030). Based on these findings, this paper presents several policy recommendations, serving as a guideline for ecotourism development on Amami-Oshima Island. The research results carry significant implications for understanding the present status and future trends of ecotourism on Amami-Oshima Island and offer valuable policy suggestions for the development of ecotourism on other islands.