Development and validation of a clinical prediction model for prognostic factors in patients with primary pontine hemorrhage

Abstract We aimed to develop a prognostic model for primary pontine hemorrhage (PPH) patients and validate the predictive value of the model for a good prognosis at 90 days. A total of 254 PPH patients were included for screening of the independent predictors of prognosis, and data were analyzed by univariate and multivariable logistic regression tests. The cases were then divided into training cohort (n=219) and validation cohort (n=35) based on the two centers. A nomogram was developed using independent predictors from the training cohort to predict the 90-day good outcome and was validated from the validation cohort. Glasgow Coma Scale score, normalized pixels (used to describe bleeding volume), and mechanical ventilation were significant predictors of a good outcome of PPH at 90 days in the training cohort (all P<0.05). The U test showed no statistical difference (P=0.892) between the training cohort and the validation cohort, suggesting the model fitted well. The new model showed good discrimination (area under the curve=0.833). The decision curve analysis of the nomogram of the training cohort indicated a great net benefit. The PPH nomogram comprising the Glasgow Coma Scale score, normalized pixels, and mechanical ventilation may facilitate predicting a 90-day good outcome.